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DreamLeague Season 22. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Winter Bearwin 2:0
series probability
37%63%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Nigma Galaxyloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Winter Bear

Faceless Void
Faceless Voidoften banned
Lowskill · 4 games
75%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokeoften banned
Jeezy · 4 games
75%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectoroften banned
Stoic · 4 games
25%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
Stoic · 4 games
25%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Stoic · 3 games
67%
Rubick
Rubick
Jeezy · 3 games
33%
Tiny
Tiny
Jeezy · 3 games
33%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
Nagato · 2 games
50%

Nigma Galaxy

Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
KuroKy · 9 games
44%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
GH · 7 games
71%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
GH · 7 games
71%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
rmN- · 6 games
50%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
MinD_ContRoL · 6 games
67%
Chen
Chensignature
KuroKy · 6 games
67%
Doom
Doomsignature
Ghost · 6 games
67%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
KuroKy · 6 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
269 picks · 390 bans
53%
Phoenix
Phoenix
261 picks · 389 bans
49%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
257 picks · 433 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
219 picks · 206 bans
46%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
217 picks · 560 bans
52%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
200 picks · 98 bans
53%
Lion
Lion
200 picks · 181 bans
51%
Muerta
Muerta
200 picks · 281 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)61% vs 58%
Hero pool strength53% Nigma Galaxy
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total63% Nigma Galaxy
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed42:21
Winter Bear 39%Nigma Galaxy 61%
The model gave 61% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Winter Bear in 38:35.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tiny
TinyJeezy
44% · 260 games72% · 12 games
Arc WardenMiracle-
Arc Warden
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful SpiritStoic
46% · 89 games56% · 64 games
LinaSumaiL
Lina
43% · 69 games
MagnusGhost
Magnus
56% · 82 games
EnchantressKuroKy
Enchantress
58% · 122 games
Treant ProtectorrmN-
Treant Protector
Game 2prediction missed39:25
Winter Bear 43%Nigma Galaxy 57%
The model gave 57% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Winter Bear in 38:06.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Pugna
PugnaJeezy
47% · 68 games60% · 11 games
Lone DruidGhost
Lone Druid
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenStoic
50% · 79 games47% · 7 games
Arc WardenMiracle-
Arc Warden
46% · 71 game
TinySumaiL
Tiny
51% · 31 game
LionrmN-
Lion
57% · 27 games
OracleKuroKy
Oracle
Model check result
Model favoriteNigma Galaxy · 63%
Series resultWinter Bear 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2