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Elite League. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Winter Bearloss 1:2
series probability
34%66%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Nigma Galaxywin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Winter Bear

Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
Stoic · 13 games
38%
Lion
Lionsignature
Jeezy · 8 games
63%
Rubick
Rubick
Jeezy · 7 games
14%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Stoic · 5 games
40%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
Jeezy · 5 games
60%
Tiny
Tiny
Jeezy · 5 games
40%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Stoic · 4 games
75%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidoften banned
Lowskill · 4 games
75%

Nigma Galaxy

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Fbz · 8 games
50%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
KuroKy · 7 games
57%
Arc Warden
Arc Wardenoften banned
Miracle- · 6 games
50%
Batrider
Batridersignature
rmN- · 6 games
67%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
Ghost · 6 games
50%
Tiny
Tiny
SumaiL · 6 games
50%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
Ghost · 5 games
40%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Matthew · 5 games
60%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
384 picks · 355 bans
52%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
348 picks · 546 bans
57%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
345 picks · 339 bans
51%
Mars
Mars
333 picks · 508 bans
55%
Techies
Techies
319 picks · 253 bans
52%
Batrider
Batrider
310 picks · 602 bans
58%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
303 picks · 182 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
291 picks · 455 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 60%
Hero pool strength53% Nigma Galaxy
Head-to-head2 – 2
Model total66% Nigma Galaxy
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed24:8
Winter Bear 40%Nigma Galaxy 60%
The model gave 60% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Winter Bear in 26:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Rubick
RubickJeezy
45% · 397 games47% · 53 games
GyrocopterMiracle-
Gyrocopter
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetLodine
55% · 126 games42% · 73 games
MarsFbz
Mars
48% · 179 games
TimbersawSumaiL
Timbersaw
60% · 101 game
Crystal MaidenKuroKy
Crystal Maiden
54% · 117 games
Keeper of the LightMatthew
Keeper of the Light
Game 2prediction correct27:37
Winter Bear 41%Nigma Galaxy 59%
The model gave 59% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 48:00.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Techies
TechiesJeezy
50% · 344 games52% · 166 games
MorphlingMiracle-
Morphling
Enchantress
EnchantressLodine
48% · 351 game47% · 86 games
Centaur WarrunnerFbz
Centaur Warrunner
52% · 182 games
Storm SpiritSumaiL
Storm Spirit
49% · 79 games
HoodwinkMatthew
Hoodwink
56% · 182 games
MiranaKuroKy
Mirana
Game 3prediction correct17:28
Winter Bear 38%Nigma Galaxy 62%
The model gave 62% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 37:41.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Enchantress
EnchantressLodine
46% · 433 games50% · 184 games
MorphlingMiracle-
Morphling
Rubick
RubickJeezy
48% · 638 games58% · 245 games
PangolierSumaiL
Pangolier
48% · 140 games
Dragon KnightFbz
Dragon Knight
56% · 221 game
MiranaKuroKy
Mirana
53% · 281 game
TechiesMatthew
Techies
Model check result
Model favoriteNigma Galaxy · 66%
Series resultNigma Galaxy 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3