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DreamLeague Season 22. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Winter Bearloss 1:2
series probability
11%89%
probability at match start · final 1:2
PSG Questwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Winter Bear

Faceless Void
Faceless Voidoften banned
Lowskill · 4 games
75%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokeoften banned
Jeezy · 4 games
75%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectoroften banned
Nagato · 3 games
0%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
Stoic · 3 games
33%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
Nagato · 2 games
50%
Muerta
Muertaoften banned
Lowskill · 2 games
50%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Stoic · 2 games
100%
Rubick
Rubick
Jeezy · 2 games
0%

PSG Quest

Rubick
Rubick
OmaR · 31 game
55%
Naga Siren
Naga Sirensignature
TA2000 · 18 games
61%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
Kaori · 17 games
47%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
Malik · 17 games
59%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Kaori · 17 games
65%
Earthshaker
Earthshaker
No!ob · 14 games
50%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
No!ob · 13 games
46%
Mirana
Miranasignature
OmaR · 12 games
75%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
264 picks · 382 bans
54%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
256 picks · 431 bans
50%
Phoenix
Phoenix
255 picks · 389 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
218 picks · 205 bans
46%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
215 picks · 549 bans
52%
Muerta
Muerta
200 picks · 281 bans
49%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
199 picks · 98 bans
53%
Lion
Lion
194 picks · 170 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)63% vs 64%
Hero pool strength54% PSG Quest
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total89% PSG Quest
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed28:18
Winter Bear 24%PSG Quest 76%
The model gave 76% on PSG Quest — the game was taken by Winter Bear in 40:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Rubick
RubickJeezy
45% · 614 games47% · 103 games
Faceless VoidTA2000
Faceless Void
Clockwerk
ClockwerkStoic
56% · 286 games47% · 272 games
PangolierNo!ob
Pangolier
57% · 92 games
MagnusMalik
Magnus
49% · 228 games
EnchantressKaori
Enchantress
48% · 205 games
TechiesOmaR
Techies
Game 2prediction correct25:41
Winter Bear 25%PSG Quest 75%
The model gave 75% on PSG Quest — the game was taken by PSG Quest in 53:13.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Clockwerk
ClockwerkStoic
56% · 387 games51% · 76 games
TimbersawMalik
Timbersaw
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful SpiritJeezy
45% · 131 game47% · 80 games
Storm SpiritNo!ob
Storm Spirit
50% · 114 games
Nature's ProphetKaori
Nature's Prophet
56% · 34 games
WindrangerTA2000
Windranger
45% · 214 games
RubickOmaR
Rubick
Game 3prediction correct18:45
Winter Bear 26%PSG Quest 74%
The model gave 74% on PSG Quest — the game was taken by PSG Quest in 42:32.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lich
LichStoic
54% · 118 games50% · 92 games
Death ProphetNo!ob
Death Prophet
Tiny
TinyJeezy
53% · 320 games38% · 67 games
WindrangerTA2000
Windranger
53% · 73 games
TimbersawMalik
Timbersaw
45% · 93 games
BatriderOmaR
Batrider
46% · 113 games
Treant ProtectorKaori
Treant Protector
Model check result
Model favoritePSG Quest · 89%
Series resultPSG Quest 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3