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EPL Championship Season 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
Winter Bearwin 2:0
series probability
13%87%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Rune Eatersloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Winter Bear

Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Panda · 4 games
75%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
Panda · 4 games
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Panda · 3 games
0%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Panda · 3 games
0%
Sand King
Sand King
Panda · 3 games
67%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
Panda · 3 games
33%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Kaori · 2 games
100%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
Kaori · 2 games
0%

Rune Eaters

Ringmaster
Ringmastersignature
ani-san · 54 games
63%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
monodrama · 45 games
51%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Ethereal · 40 games
55%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
Ethereal · 33 games
42%
Ogre Magi
Ogre Magisignature
monodrama · 30 games
80%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
ani-san · 29 games
52%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
Ankou · 28 games
57%
Slardar
Slardarsignature
Ankou · 26 games
65%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
530 picks · 864 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
515 picks · 377 bans
48%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
472 picks · 637 bans
50%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
458 picks · 592 bans
56%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
392 picks · 798 bans
53%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
350 picks · 557 bans
60%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
344 picks · 576 bans
49%
Mars
Mars
341 picks · 488 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 70%
Hero pool strength56% Rune Eaters
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total87% Rune Eaters
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed47:24
Winter Bear 26%Rune Eaters 74%
The model gave 74% on Rune Eaters — the game was taken by Winter Bear in 47:47.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Alchemist
Alchemist4IVAN
47% · 28 games52% · 150 games
Morphlingyowaai
Morphling
Huskar
HuskarPanda
54% · 32 games46% · 134 games
LeshracEthereal
Leshrac
Mars
MarsfortniteMan
45% · 160 games47% · 121 game
KunkkaAnkou
Kunkka
Tiny
Tinywaveformn
45% · 290 games53% · 198 games
Muertaani-san
Muerta
Phoenix
PhoenixDelight
55% · 130 games62% · 37 games
Treant Protectormonodrama
Treant Protector
Game 2prediction missed29:24
Winter Bear 28%Rune Eaters 72%
The model gave 72% on Rune Eaters — the game was taken by Winter Bear in 48:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Alchemist
Alchemist4IVAN
42% · 34 games45% · 187 games
Queen of PainEthereal
Queen of Pain
Beastmaster
BeastmasterPanda
51% · 324 games61% · 33 games
Clinkzyowaai
Clinkz
Razor
RazorfortniteMan
55% · 34 games49% · 155 games
DawnbreakerAnkou
Dawnbreaker
Marci
Marciwaveformn
51% · 206 games52% · 133 games
Dark Willowani-san
Dark Willow
Phoenix
PhoenixDelight
42% · 180 games56% · 270 games
Jakiromonodrama
Jakiro
Model check result
Model favoriteRune Eaters · 87%
Series resultWinter Bear 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2