Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — Западная Европа · BO1
result vs prediction
Winter Bearwin 1:0series probability
42%58%
probability at match start · final 1:0
TBTeam Bananeloss 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Winter Bear
Weaveroften banned
Ekki · 2 games
Lunaoften banned
Exotic Deer · 1 game
Medusaoften banned
Exotic Deer · 1 game
Team Banane
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
264 picks · 333 bans
Tidehunter
260 picks · 384 bans
Monkey King
247 picks · 579 bans
Void Spirit
225 picks · 250 bans
Lion
223 picks · 103 bans
Lina
221 picks · 456 bans
Pangolier
218 picks · 270 bans
Bane
213 picks · 139 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 50%
Hero pool strength51% Winter Bear
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total58% Team Banane
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed36:50
Winter Bear 42%Team Banane 58%
The model gave 58% on Team Banane — the game was taken by Winter Bear in 1:02:07.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Banane · 58%
Series resultWinter Bear 1:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1