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European Pro League Season 34 · BO3
result vs prediction
Winter Bearwin 2:0
series probability
67%33%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team Spirit Academyloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Winter Bear

Invoker
Invokersignature
Panda · 6 games
67%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
Delight · 6 games
50%
Marci
Marcisignature
waveformn · 6 games
100%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Delight · 6 games
83%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Panda · 6 games
33%
Razor
Razorsignature
fortniteMan · 6 games
83%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendsignature
Panda · 6 games
67%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
fortniteMan · 5 games
80%

Team Spirit Academy

Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Aidar · 17 games
24%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
rubikon155 · 14 games
57%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
kyford · 12 games
33%
Witch Doctor
Witch Doctor
Aidar · 12 games
50%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
SunshineRR · 11 games
18%
Warlock
Warlock
kyford · 11 games
27%
Dazzle
Dazzle
kyford · 10 games
40%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
SunshineRR · 10 games
40%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
618 picks · 942 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
520 picks · 425 bans
47%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
469 picks · 621 bans
58%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
426 picks · 964 bans
52%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
424 picks · 564 bans
49%
Warlock
Warlock
406 picks · 249 bans
47%
Tiny
Tiny
401 picks · 454 bans
48%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
394 picks · 665 bans
59%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)59% vs 38%
Hero pool strength66% Winter Bear
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total67% Winter Bear
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct33:19
Winter Bear 58%Team Spirit Academy 42%
The model gave 58% on Winter Bear — the game was taken by Winter Bear in 33:00.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopterzuyzyan
48% · 300 games55% · 301 game
Ursarubikon155
Ursa
Void Spirit
Void SpiritPanda
47% · 172 games52% · 135 games
Brewmasterkae
Brewmaster
Viper
ViperfortniteMan
48% · 89 games55% · 245 games
Muerta86
Muerta
Tusk
Tuskwaveformn
45% · 482 games49% · 551 game
Jakirokyford
Jakiro
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanDelight
51% · 295 games50% · 106 games
LionAidar
Lion
Game 2prediction correct42:22
Winter Bear 63%Team Spirit Academy 37%
The model gave 63% on Winter Bear — the game was taken by Winter Bear in 32:05.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Muerta
Muertazuyzyan
53% · 201 game51% · 75 games
Lina86
Lina
Huskar
HuskarPanda
55% · 80 games43% · 245 games
Windrangerrubikon155
Windranger
Razor
RazorfortniteMan
60% · 62 games53% · 138 games
Primal Beastkae
Primal Beast
Tiny
Tinywaveformn
52% · 323 games37% · 29 games
TechiesAidar
Techies
Warlock
WarlockDelight
52% · 287 games43% · 466 games
Tuskkyford
Tusk
Model check result
Model favoriteWinter Bear · 67%
Series resultWinter Bear 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2