DreamLeague Season 25. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Winter Bearwin 2:0series probability
71%29%
probability at match start · final 2:0
The Covenantloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Winter Bear
Clockwerkoften banned
jAMES · 1 game
Dark Willow
jAMES · 1 game
Gyrocopteroften banned
jAMES · 1 game
Tuskoften banned
jAMES · 1 game
The Covenant
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Clockwerk
409 picks · 520 bans
Muerta
400 picks · 325 bans
Tusk
365 picks · 384 bans
Pangolier
347 picks · 570 bans
Lion
345 picks · 171 bans
Batrider
339 picks · 425 bans
Beastmaster
332 picks · 776 bans
Gyrocopter
319 picks · 469 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 50%
Hero pool strength56% The Covenant
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total71% Winter Bear
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct46:8
Winter Bear 71%The Covenant 29%
The model gave 71% on Winter Bear — the game was taken by Winter Bear in 23:55.
Game 2prediction correct31:5
Winter Bear 71%The Covenant 29%
The model gave 71% on Winter Bear — the game was taken by Winter Bear in 23:48.
Model check result
Model favoriteWinter Bear · 71%
Series resultWinter Bear 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2