ESL One Raleigh 2025. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Winter Bearwin 1:0series probability
71%29%
probability at match start · final 1:0
The Covenantloss 0:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Winter Bear
Dark Willow
jAMES · 5 games
Phoenixoften banned
Delight · 3 games
Gyrocopteroften banned
jAMES · 2 games
Nyx Assassinoften banned
Delight · 2 games
Rubick
jAMES · 2 games
Shadow Demonoften banned
Delight · 2 games
Bounty Hunter
Delight · 1 game
Clockwerkoften banned
jAMES · 1 game
The Covenant
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Muerta
485 picks · 409 bans
Clockwerk
451 picks · 583 bans
Batrider
422 picks · 525 bans
Lion
417 picks · 228 bans
Gyrocopter
414 picks · 703 bans
Phoenix
404 picks · 465 bans
Pangolier
375 picks · 595 bans
Beastmaster
357 picks · 935 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 47%
Hero pool strength50% Winter Bear
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total71% Winter Bear
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
Winter Bear 71%The Covenant 29%
The model gave 71% on Winter Bear — the game was taken by Winter Bear.
Model check result
Model favoriteWinter Bear · 71%
Series resultWinter Bear 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1