Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 2 — Западная Европа · BO3
result vs prediction
Wisla Krakowloss 0:2series probability
62%38%
probability at match start · final 0:2
IVYwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Wisla Krakow
No games played over 6 months.
IVY
Marsoften banned
TheBloodySky · 11 games
Spirit Breakeroften banned
TheBloodySky · 11 games
Medusasignature
Lowskill · 8 games
Kunkkaoften banned
Lowskill · 7 games
Weaveroften banned
jmn- · 7 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Copy · 6 games
Batrideroften banned
Mo13ei · 5 games
Linaoften banned
Copy · 5 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
539 picks · 364 bans
Queen of Pain
471 picks · 583 bans
Weaver
429 picks · 689 bans
Mars
427 picks · 612 bans
Kunkka
348 picks · 552 bans
Spirit Breaker
338 picks · 572 bans
Snapfire
323 picks · 159 bans
Wraith King
279 picks · 369 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)63% vs 29%
Hero pool strength55% Wisla Krakow
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total62% Wisla Krakow
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed34:43
Wisla Krakow 62%IVY 38%
The model gave 62% on Wisla Krakow — the game was taken by IVY in 1:02:47.
Game 2prediction missed34:13
Wisla Krakow 62%IVY 38%
The model gave 62% on Wisla Krakow — the game was taken by IVY in 28:27.
Model check result
Model favoriteWisla Krakow · 62%
Series resultIVY 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2