Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — Западная Европа · BO3
result vs prediction
Wisla Krakowwin 2:0series probability
46%54%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Winter Bearloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Wisla Krakow
No games played over 6 months.
Winter Bear
Weaveroften banned
Ekki · 3 games
Lunaoften banned
Exotic Deer · 1 game
Medusaoften banned
Exotic Deer · 1 game
Wraith Kingoften banned
Exotic Deer · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
265 picks · 341 bans
Tidehunter
261 picks · 388 bans
Monkey King
248 picks · 586 bans
Void Spirit
225 picks · 251 bans
Lion
224 picks · 104 bans
Lina
221 picks · 462 bans
Pangolier
219 picks · 272 bans
Bane
214 picks · 141 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 57%
Hero pool strength55% Winter Bear
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total54% Winter Bear
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct15:28
Wisla Krakow 46%Winter Bear 54%
The model gave 54% on Winter Bear — the game was taken by Winter Bear in 31:34.
Game 2prediction correct42:14
Wisla Krakow 46%Winter Bear 54%
The model gave 54% on Winter Bear — the game was taken by Winter Bear in 27:31.
Model check result
Model favoriteWinter Bear · 54%
Series resultWisla Krakow 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game2 of 2