Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 2 — Южная Америка · BO3
result vs prediction
Wolf Teamwin 2:0series probability
78%22%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Interitusloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Wolf Team
No games played over 6 months.
Interitus
Centaur Warrunner
H1j4ck · 7 games
Queen of Painoften banned
Rayuur · 7 games
Undyingoften banned
DFlash · 6 games
Bane
DFlash · 5 games
Hoodwink
Amin · 5 games
Pangolieroften banned
H1j4ck · 5 games
Sand Kingoften banned
H1j4ck · 5 games
Jakiro
DFlash · 4 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
444 picks · 266 bans
Mars
404 picks · 549 bans
Death Prophet
323 picks · 633 bans
Tiny
320 picks · 372 bans
Weaver
300 picks · 375 bans
Ember Spirit
284 picks · 415 bans
Queen of Pain
270 picks · 437 bans
Sand King
269 picks · 329 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 27%
Hero pool strength55% Wolf Team
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total78% Wolf Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed38:14
Wolf Team 78%Interitus 22%
The model gave 78% on Wolf Team — the game was taken by Interitus in 25:34.
Game 2prediction missed6:27
Wolf Team 78%Interitus 22%
The model gave 78% on Wolf Team — the game was taken by Interitus in 18:39.
Model check result
Model favoriteWolf Team · 78%
Series resultWolf Team 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2