WOLF vs Rectify — prediction DPC2S3ЮЗО · Dota 2

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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. ЮВА. Закрытые отборочные · BO3

result vs prediction

WOLFloss 0:2

series probability

71%29%

probability at match start · final 0:2

RRectifywin 2:0

The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.

Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months

Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

WOLF

No games played over 6 months.

Rectify

Nature's Prophetoften banned

MangO · 9 games

44%

Snapfire

Sans · 7 games

43%

Tiny

Ponyo · 7 games

43%

Ember Spiritoften banned

Wonder'boy · 6 games

33%

Marcioften banned

Ws · 5 games

Tusk

Ws · 5 games

20%

Beastmasteroften banned

Ws · 4 games

25%

Hoodwink

Sans · 4 games

25%

Patch meta · 3 months

The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.

Rubick

742 picks · 606 bans

47%

Disruptor

547 picks · 475 bans

55%

Beastmaster

422 picks · 1012 bans

58%

Tiny

402 picks · 376 bans

52%

Ember Spirit

397 picks · 965 bans

51%

Doom

394 picks · 640 bans

54%

Undying

390 picks · 604 bans

50%

Mirana

381 picks · 204 bans

57%

Prediction components

Form (series winrate)71% vs 40%

Hero pool strength56% WOLF

Head-to-head0 – 0

Model total71% WOLF

Prediction by game vs result

Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.

Game 1prediction missed22:33

WOLF 61%Rectify 39%

The model gave 61% on WOLF — the game was taken by Rectify in 44:34.

Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo