DreamLeague Season 25. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Wolf Warriorsloss 1:2series probability
65%35%
probability at match start · final 1:2
The Covenantwin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Wolf Warriors
No games played over 6 months.
The Covenant
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Clockwerk
413 picks · 534 bans
Muerta
405 picks · 334 bans
Tusk
365 picks · 386 bans
Lion
355 picks · 177 bans
Pangolier
353 picks · 584 bans
Batrider
348 picks · 432 bans
Beastmaster
336 picks · 797 bans
Phoenix
326 picks · 332 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 45%
Hero pool strength50% Wolf Warriors
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total65% Wolf Warriors
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct47:19
Wolf Warriors 65%The Covenant 35%
The model gave 65% on Wolf Warriors — the game was taken by Wolf Warriors in 36:47.
Game 2prediction missed18:37
Wolf Warriors 65%The Covenant 35%
The model gave 65% on Wolf Warriors — the game was taken by The Covenant in 37:26.
Game 3prediction missed39:50
Wolf Warriors 65%The Covenant 35%
The model gave 65% on Wolf Warriors — the game was taken by The Covenant in 46:35.
Model check result
Model favoriteWolf Warriors · 65%
Series resultThe Covenant 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3