PGL Wallachia 2024: Season 1. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs predictionWWongsloss 0:2
series probability
14%86%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Nigma Galaxywin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Wongs
No games played over 6 months.
Nigma Galaxy
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Fbz · 10 games
Arc Wardenoften banned
Miracle- · 7 games
Batridersignature
rmN- · 7 games
Storm Spiritsignature
SumaiL · 7 games
Vengeful Spirit
KuroKy · 7 games
Magnusoften banned
Ghost · 6 games
Tinyoften banned
SumaiL · 6 games
Enchantressoften banned
KuroKy · 5 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
379 picks · 612 bans
Lion
379 picks · 350 bans
Mars
370 picks · 570 bans
Techies
367 picks · 292 bans
Batrider
350 picks · 726 bans
Vengeful Spirit
348 picks · 340 bans
Tiny
335 picks · 350 bans
Hoodwink
329 picks · 197 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 64%
Hero pool strength55% Nigma Galaxy
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total86% Nigma Galaxy
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct8:41
Wongs 14%Nigma Galaxy 86%
The model gave 86% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 19:57.
Game 2prediction correct39:9
Wongs 14%Nigma Galaxy 86%
The model gave 86% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 20:12.
Model check result
Model favoriteNigma Galaxy · 86%
Series resultNigma Galaxy 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2