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European Pro League Season 26 · BO3
result vs prediction
WW Teamloss 0:2
series probability
23%77%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Apple City Gangwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

WW Team

Jakiro
Jakiro
Wein · 3 games
67%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
asdekor_r · 2 games
100%
Kunkka
Kunkka
ssnovv1 · 2 games
50%
Sand King
Sand Kingoften banned
VladikTheHtiviy · 2 games
50%
Slark
Slarkoften banned
Wein · 2 games
50%
Tusk
Tusk
Wein · 2 games
0%
Brewmaster
Brewmasteroften banned
VladikTheHtiviy · 1 game
0%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
VladikTheHtiviy · 1 game
100%

Apple City Gang

Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
dualrazee · 16 games
69%
Tusk
Tusk
QBFY · 12 games
58%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
flacko · 11 games
55%
Marci
Marcioften banned
flacko · 9 games
44%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
yowaai · 9 games
89%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionsignature
flacko · 8 games
75%
Jakiro
Jakiro
flacko · 8 games
38%
Medusa
Medusaoften banned
mangekyou · 8 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
449 picks · 432 bans
51%
Tiny
Tiny
424 picks · 590 bans
50%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassin
315 picks · 626 bans
52%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
307 picks · 139 bans
50%
Muerta
Muerta
292 picks · 163 bans
53%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
284 picks · 561 bans
52%
Bristleback
Bristleback
284 picks · 535 bans
56%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
283 picks · 510 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 55%
Hero pool strength52% Apple City Gang
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total77% Apple City Gang
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct23:36
WW Team 33%Apple City Gang 67%
The model gave 67% on Apple City Gang — the game was taken by Apple City Gang in 47:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetssnovv1
51% · 125 games47% · 164 games
Doomyowaai
Doom
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritMirele
45% · 242 games51% · 286 games
Pangolierdualrazee
Pangolier
Underlord
UnderlordVladikTheHtiviy
42% · 82 games56% · 161 game
BristlebackNorma
Bristleback
Elder Titan
Elder Titanasdekor_r
55% · 141 game51% · 49 games
RikiFernans
Riki
Windranger
WindrangerWein
47% · 195 games53% · 125 games
Ringmasterflacko
Ringmaster
Game 2prediction correct11:32
WW Team 34%Apple City Gang 66%
The model gave 66% on Apple City Gang — the game was taken by Apple City Gang in 35:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
Medusassnovv1
49% · 116 gameslittle data
Phantom Lanceryowaai
Phantom Lancer
Puck
PuckMirele
54% · 190 games50% · 296 games
Storm Spiritdualrazee
Storm Spirit
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeVladikTheHtiviy
39% · 183 games63% · 214 games
Sand KingNorma
Sand King
Tiny
TinyWein
47% · 363 games54% · 108 games
Keeper of the LightFernans
Keeper of the Light
Warlock
Warlockasdekor_r
44% · 118 games46% · 352 games
Phoenixflacko
Phoenix
Model check result
Model favoriteApple City Gang · 77%
Series resultApple City Gang 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2