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Gamers Without Borders 2022. Открытые квалификации · BO1
result vs prediction
X3loss 0:1
series probability
11%89%
probability at match start · final 0:1
Gambit Esportswin 1:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

X3

Bane
Bane
Kidaro · 12 games
17%
Outworld Destroyer
Outworld Destroyeroften banned
NattyNarwhal · 8 games
38%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Kidaro · 7 games
43%
Lina
Linaoften banned
NattyNarwhal · 6 games
33%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
velheor · 5 games
20%
Medusa
Medusaoften banned
nesfeer · 5 games
40%
Phantom Lancer
Phantom Lanceroften banned
DarkLord^ · 5 games
40%
Puck
Puckoften banned
NattyNarwhal · 5 games
40%

Gambit Esports

No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
Bane
435 picks · 274 bans
57%
Mars
Mars
423 picks · 566 bans
53%
Tiny
Tiny
383 picks · 445 bans
52%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
348 picks · 722 bans
54%
Sand King
Sand King
321 picks · 440 bans
54%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
317 picks · 466 bans
51%
Pangolier
Pangolier
283 picks · 422 bans
53%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
273 picks · 416 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)42% vs 65%
Hero pool strength56% Gambit Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total89% Gambit Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct37:45
X3 25%Gambit Esports 75%
The model gave 75% on Gambit Esports — the game was taken by Gambit Esports in 59:52.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Puck
PuckNattyNarwhal
42% · 283 games56% · 60 games
JuggernautSmiling Knight
Juggernaut
Hoodwink
Hoodwinkvelheor
43% · 301 game50% · 88 games
Batridermellojul
Batrider
Sand King
Sand KingMastery
49% · 260 games48% · 377 games
MarsAfterLife
Mars
Pugna
Pugnaantoha
49% · 81 game57% · 170 games
Miranasayuw
Mirana
62% · 230 games
BanePanto
Bane
Model check result
Model favoriteGambit Esports · 89%
Series resultGambit Esports 0:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1