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Winline Dota 2 Champions League Season 11 · BO3
result vs prediction
X3loss 1:2
series probability
58%42%
probability at match start · final 1:2
HFwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

X3

Bane
Bane
Kidaro · 22 games
45%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Mastery · 10 games
60%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
velheor · 10 games
30%
Outworld Destroyer
Outworld Destroyeroften banned
NattyNarwhal · 8 games
38%
Phantom Lancer
Phantom Lanceroften banned
DarkLord^ · 8 games
38%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Kidaro · 7 games
43%
Invoker
Invokersignature
NattyNarwhal · 7 games
71%
Lina
Linaoften banned
NattyNarwhal · 7 games
29%

HF

Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
Cloud · 14 games
71%
Mirana
Miranasignature
ArrOw · 13 games
77%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Cloud · 12 games
58%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
TA2000 · 11 games
45%
Bane
Bane
Malady · 8 games
50%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansignature
Kaori · 8 games
75%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Cloud · 7 games
57%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
ArrOw · 6 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
Mars
462 picks · 639 bans
47%
Tiny
Tiny
462 picks · 495 bans
50%
Bane
Bane
437 picks · 264 bans
56%
Sand King
Sand King
422 picks · 555 bans
54%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
360 picks · 420 bans
52%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
360 picks · 606 bans
56%
Pangolier
Pangolier
349 picks · 533 bans
52%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
342 picks · 807 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 57%
Hero pool strength59% HF
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total58% X3
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct39:41
X3 58%HF 42%
The model gave 58% on X3 — the game was taken by X3 in 48:38.
Game 2prediction missed17:37
X3 58%HF 42%
The model gave 58% on X3 — the game was taken by HF in 34:40.
Game 3prediction missed42:31
X3 58%HF 42%
The model gave 58% on X3 — the game was taken by HF in 40:36.
Model check result
Model favoriteX3 · 58%
Series resultHF 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3