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Winline Dota 2 Champions League Season 12 · BO3
result vs prediction
X3loss 1:2
series probability
58%42%
probability at match start · final 1:2
HFwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

X3

Bane
Bane
antoha · 23 games
48%
Puck
Puckoften banned
NattyNarwhal · 11 games
45%
Pugna
Pugnaoften banned
antoha · 11 games
36%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectorsignature
smN · 11 games
64%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Mastery · 10 games
60%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
velheor · 10 games
30%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightsignature
NattyNarwhal · 9 games
67%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
nesfeer · 9 games
33%

HF

Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
Cloud · 14 games
71%
Mirana
Miranasignature
ArrOw · 13 games
77%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Cloud · 12 games
58%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
TA2000 · 12 games
50%
Bane
Bane
Malady · 8 games
50%
Puck
Pucksignature
hAze · 8 games
75%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansignature
Kaori · 8 games
75%
Io
Iosignature
Kaori · 7 games
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
508 picks · 454 bans
49%
Mars
Mars
497 picks · 695 bans
48%
Bane
Bane
461 picks · 288 bans
58%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
436 picks · 534 bans
52%
Sand King
Sand King
403 picks · 552 bans
55%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
401 picks · 639 bans
57%
Pangolier
Pangolier
375 picks · 625 bans
51%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
360 picks · 320 bans
46%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 57%
Hero pool strength59% HF
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total58% X3
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct47:26
X3 58%HF 42%
The model gave 58% on X3 — the game was taken by X3 in 37:33.
Game 2prediction missed58:45
X3 58%HF 42%
The model gave 58% on X3 — the game was taken by HF in 1:02:57.
Game 3prediction missed20:42
X3 58%HF 42%
The model gave 58% on X3 — the game was taken by HF in 39:44.
Model check result
Model favoriteX3 · 58%
Series resultHF 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3