Winline Dota 2 Champions League Season 8 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
34%66%
probability at match start · final 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
X3
Bane
Kidaro · 10 games
Outworld Destroyeroften banned
NattyNarwhal · 8 games
Linaoften banned
NattyNarwhal · 6 games
Enchantressoften banned
Kidaro · 5 games
Phantom Lanceroften banned
DarkLord^ · 5 games
Razoroften banned
Antares · 5 games
Faceless Voidoften banned
DarkLord^ · 4 games
Puckoften banned
NattyNarwhal · 4 games
No Sorry
Bane
BLACKARXANGEL · 6 games
Marsoften banned
LastHero- · 6 games
Beastmasteroften banned
LastHero- · 4 games
Dark Willow
y0nd · 4 games
Invokeroften banned
Worick · 4 games
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
BLACKARXANGEL · 4 games
Legion Commanderoften banned
LastHero- · 4 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Worick · 3 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
429 picks · 262 bans
Queen of Pain
378 picks · 491 bans
Mars
354 picks · 498 bans
Weaver
341 picks · 485 bans
Kunkka
281 picks · 478 bans
Death Prophet
262 picks · 398 bans
Grimstroke
257 picks · 175 bans
Wraith King
246 picks · 334 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)33% vs 44%
Hero pool strength54% No Sorry
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total66% No Sorry
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed30:14
X3 41%No Sorry 59%
The model gave 59% on No Sorry — the game was taken by X3 in 30:02.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusanesfeer
TinyDinozavrik
Keeper of the LightNattyNarwhal
InvokerWorick
TimbersawMastery
BeastmasterLastHero-
Shadow Shamanvelheor
Hoodwinky0nd
Vengeful SpiritKidaro
BaneBLACKARXANGEL
Game 2prediction missed31:12
X3 39%No Sorry 61%
The model gave 61% on No Sorry — the game was taken by X3 in 30:12.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphlingnesfeer
TinyDinozavrik
Void SpiritNattyNarwhal
Dark SeerLastHero-
PangolierMastery
InvokerWorick
Hoodwinkvelheor
Clockwerky0nd
BaneKidaro
Keeper of the LightBLACKARXANGEL
Model check result
Model favoriteNo Sorry · 66%
Series resultX3 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2