Winline Dota 2 Champions League Season 11 · BO3
result vs prediction
X3win 2:0series probability
59%41%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team Empireloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
X3
Bane
Kidaro · 21 game
Dragon Knightsignature
Mastery · 10 games
Hoodwink
velheor · 10 games
Outworld Destroyeroften banned
NattyNarwhal · 8 games
Phantom Lanceroften banned
DarkLord^ · 8 games
Enchantressoften banned
Kidaro · 7 games
Linaoften banned
NattyNarwhal · 7 games
Puckoften banned
NattyNarwhal · 7 games
Team Empire
Marsoften banned
DkFogas · 25 games
Bane
Kaori · 24 games
Grimstroke
[T]SA · 18 games
Sand Kingoften banned
DkFogas · 14 games
Clockwerk
[T]SA · 13 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
lightless · 13 games
Queen of Painoften banned
Iceberg · 12 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Dodren · 11 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
465 picks · 625 bans
Tiny
453 picks · 505 bans
Bane
435 picks · 275 bans
Sand King
412 picks · 534 bans
Death Prophet
355 picks · 808 bans
Storm Spirit
344 picks · 567 bans
Pangolier
343 picks · 520 bans
Ember Spirit
339 picks · 563 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)54% vs 48%
Hero pool strength57% X3
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total59% X3
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Model check result
Model favoriteX3 · 59%
Series resultX3 2:0
Series predictioncorrect