Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — Восточная Европа · BO3
result vs prediction
X3win 2:0series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team Uniqueloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
X3
Bane
antoha · 21 game
Puckoften banned
NattyNarwhal · 14 games
Keeper of the Lightsignature
NattyNarwhal · 12 games
Pugnaoften banned
smN · 12 games
Treant Protectorsignature
smN · 12 games
Dragon Knightsignature
Mastery · 10 games
Beastmastersignature
Shergarat · 9 games
Hoodwink
velheor · 9 games
Team Unique
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
546 picks · 456 bans
Mars
441 picks · 687 bans
Dragon Knight
427 picks · 543 bans
Bane
395 picks · 280 bans
Pangolier
353 picks · 580 bans
Puck
350 picks · 810 bans
Storm Spirit
335 picks · 537 bans
Ember Spirit
334 picks · 626 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 50%
Hero pool strength52% X3
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total50% Team Unique
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed30:12
X3 50%Team Unique 50%
The model gave 50% on Team Unique — the game was taken by X3 in 32:15.
Game 2prediction missed32:9
X3 50%Team Unique 50%
The model gave 50% on Team Unique — the game was taken by X3 in 32:36.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Unique · 50%
Series resultX3 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2