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Лига Ставок Dota 2 Champions League Season 16 · BO3
result vs prediction
X3win 2:1
series probability
77%23%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Water Rune Enjoyersloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

X3

Enigma
Enigmaoften banned
Shergarat · 23 games
57%
Marci
Marcioften banned
velheor · 18 games
50%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakersignature
Shergarat · 17 games
71%
Puck
Puckoften banned
NattyNarwhal · 17 games
53%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Shergarat · 15 games
60%
Jakiro
Jakiro
dark · 15 games
53%
Zeus
Zeussignature
NattyNarwhal · 15 games
60%
Tiny
Tinysignature
velheor · 14 games
64%

Water Rune Enjoyers

Tiny
Tiny
Nukkumatti · 23 games
52%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
b1kA · 22 games
55%
Marci
Marcioften banned
Nukkumatti · 17 games
41%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Stojkov · 17 games
59%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvernsignature
Mary_y · 16 games
63%
Razor
Razoroften banned
Palantimos · 15 games
53%
Visage
Visagesignature
BliNcc · 15 games
60%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
BliNcc · 14 games
21%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Marci
Marci
391 picks · 595 bans
55%
Tiny
Tiny
366 picks · 262 bans
52%
Undying
Undying
324 picks · 545 bans
54%
Enigma
Enigma
248 picks · 766 bans
57%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
236 picks · 357 bans
47%
Pangolier
Pangolier
232 picks · 337 bans
54%
Primal Beast
Primal Beast
219 picks · 414 bans
54%
Batrider
Batrider
207 picks · 736 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 29%
Hero pool strength53% X3
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total77% X3
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct34:17
X3 68%Water Rune Enjoyers 32%
The model gave 68% on X3 — the game was taken by X3 in 43:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga Siren
Naga Sirennesfeer
63% · 26 games43% · 209 games
Templar AssassinStojkov
Templar Assassin
Tiny
TinyNattyNarwhal
53% · 219 games56% · 116 games
PudgePalantimos
Pudge
Marci
MarciShergarat
55% · 131 game46% · 45 games
BroodmotherBliNcc
Broodmother
Zeus
Zeusvelheor
43% · 43 games47% · 56 games
Liony0nd
Lion
Mirana
Miranadark
56% · 79 games39% · 72 games
LichMary_y
Lich
Game 2prediction missed17:44
X3 66%Water Rune Enjoyers 34%
The model gave 66% on X3 — the game was taken by Water Rune Enjoyers in 35:38.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sniper
SniperNattyNarwhal
46% · 50 games46% · 125 games
LinaStojkov
Lina
Lifestealer
Lifestealernesfeer
57% · 93 games51% · 205 games
WeaverPalantimos
Weaver
Marci
MarciShergarat
54% · 354 games46% · 86 games
Primal BeastBliNcc
Primal Beast
Rubick
Rubickdark
50% · 249 games44% · 97 games
Crystal MaidenMary_y
Crystal Maiden
Tusk
Tuskvelheor
52% · 193 games52% · 426 games
Tinyy0nd
Tiny
Game 3prediction correct27:6
X3 67%Water Rune Enjoyers 33%
The model gave 67% on X3 — the game was taken by X3 in 21:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealer
Lifestealernesfeer
43% · 56 games59% · 40 games
Naga SirenPalantimos
Naga Siren
Pangolier
PangolierNattyNarwhal
49% · 218 games47% · 124 games
Void SpiritStojkov
Void Spirit
Broodmother
BroodmotherShergarat
50% · 46 games50% · 106 games
BloodseekerBliNcc
Bloodseeker
Jakiro
Jakirodark
56% · 72 games50% · 102 games
Nyx Assassiny0nd
Nyx Assassin
Hoodwink
Hoodwinkvelheor
48% · 110 games51% · 130 games
DisruptorMary_y
Disruptor
Model check result
Model favoriteX3 · 77%
Series resultX3 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3