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Лига Ставок Dota 2 Champions League Season 16 · BO3
result vs prediction
X3win 2:0
series probability
58%42%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Zorka Gamingloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

X3

Enigma
Enigmaoften banned
Shergarat · 23 games
57%
Marci
Marcioften banned
velheor · 20 games
50%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakersignature
Shergarat · 17 games
71%
Puck
Puckoften banned
NattyNarwhal · 17 games
53%
Jakiro
Jakiro
dark · 16 games
56%
Zeus
Zeussignature
velheor · 16 games
63%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Shergarat · 15 games
60%
Tiny
Tinysignature
velheor · 15 games
67%

Zorka Gaming

Tiny
Tiny
OneJey · 12 games
50%
Lina
Linasignature
Miyaoo · 8 games
63%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Miyaoo · 7 games
29%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Arti_Shock · 7 games
57%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
klassnokruto · 7 games
71%
Undying
Undyingsignature
klassnokruto · 6 games
67%
Pudge
Pudgeoften banned
dizzying · 5 games
40%
Sven
Sven
dizzying · 5 games
80%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Marci
Marci
392 picks · 598 bans
55%
Tiny
Tiny
364 picks · 265 bans
53%
Undying
Undying
324 picks · 547 bans
55%
Enigma
Enigma
248 picks · 769 bans
57%
Pangolier
Pangolier
236 picks · 336 bans
54%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
230 picks · 355 bans
47%
Primal Beast
Primal Beast
221 picks · 417 bans
54%
Batrider
Batrider
206 picks · 733 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)58% vs 57%
Hero pool strength50% X3
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total58% X3
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct28:27
X3 58%Zorka Gaming 42%
The model gave 58% on X3 — the game was taken by X3 in 53:44.
Game 2prediction correct30:19
X3 58%Zorka Gaming 42%
The model gave 58% on X3 — the game was taken by X3 in 37:06.
Model check result
Model favoriteX3 · 58%
Series resultX3 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2