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Snow Sweet Snow #1 · BO3
result vs prediction
XactJlepbIloss 1:2
series probability
36%64%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Creepwavewin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

XactJlepbI

Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
Funn1k · 5 games
60%
Elder Titan
Elder Titan
nofear · 4 games
75%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
KingR · 4 games
75%
Undying
Undyingoften banned
nofear · 4 games
100%
Drow Ranger
Drow Rangeroften banned
lightless · 3 games
100%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
nofear · 3 games
0%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Funn1k · 3 games
100%
Mirana
Mirana
KingR · 3 games
100%

Creepwave

Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinoften banned
Alexxo · 5 games
80%
Lich
Lich
Fishman · 3 games
67%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
Malr1ne · 3 games
100%
Wraith King
Wraith Kingoften banned
Crystallis · 3 games
100%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Crystallis · 2 games
100%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Malr1ne · 2 games
100%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Malr1ne · 1 game
0%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Fishman · 1 game
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
98 picks · 215 bans
54%
Mars
Mars
91 picks · 192 bans
51%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
86 picks · 67 bans
57%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
73 picks · 129 bans
56%
Phoenix
Phoenix
65 picks · 74 bans
58%
Rubick
Rubick
60 picks · 32 bans
52%
Undying
Undying
60 picks · 79 bans
56%
Wraith King
Wraith King
58 picks · 60 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)58% vs 78%
Hero pool strength54% Creepwave
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total64% Creepwave
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed40:28
XactJlepbI 43%Creepwave 57%
The model gave 57% on Creepwave — the game was taken by XactJlepbI in 45:39.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Riki
Rikilightless
48% · 13 games52% · 15 games
Monkey KingCrystallis
Monkey King
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainMagicaL
56% · 5 gameslittle data
BloodseekerMalr1ne
Bloodseeker
Pangolier
PangolierFunn1k
59% · 17 games44% · 24 games
MarsATF
Mars
Phoenix
PhoenixKingR
57% · 22 games47% · 11 games
MiranaAlexxo
Mirana
27% · 7 games
Crystal MaidenFishman
Crystal Maiden
Game 2prediction correct12:27
XactJlepbI 43%Creepwave 57%
The model gave 57% on Creepwave — the game was taken by Creepwave in 23:56.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Mars
MarsFunn1k
56% · 24 games38% · 41 game
PuckMalr1ne
Puck
Troll Warlord
Troll Warlordlightless
45% · 12 games49% · 18 games
Monkey KingCrystallis
Monkey King
Phoenix
PhoenixKingR
61% · 29 games48% · 9 games
TidehunterATF
Tidehunter
Void Spirit
Void SpiritMagicaL
60% · 17 games46% · 14 games
MiranaAlexxo
Mirana
little data
WarlockFishman
Warlock
Game 3prediction correct32:34
XactJlepbI 41%Creepwave 59%
The model gave 59% on Creepwave — the game was taken by Creepwave in 42:53.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
Ursalightless
44% · 5 games66% · 10 games
Wraith KingCrystallis
Wraith King
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetFunn1k
52% · 11 games59% · 16 games
PuckMalr1ne
Puck
Outworld Destroyer
Outworld DestroyerMagicaL
29% · 3 gameslittle data
Sand KingATF
Sand King
Rubick
RubickKingR
37% · 20 games56% · 5 games
PhoenixAlexxo
Phoenix
50% · 8 games
UndyingFishman
Undying
Model check result
Model favoriteCreepwave · 64%
Series resultCreepwave 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3