ESL One Raleigh 2025. Открытые квалификации · BO1
result vs predictionXxanblloss 0:1
series probability
38%62%
probability at match start · final 0:1
4Pirateswin 1:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
xanbl
No games played over 6 months.
4Pirates
Muerta
ariel · 13 games
Timbersawoften banned
мистер мораль · 13 games
Lionsignature
ariel · 10 games
Shadow Demonoften banned
PERDAN4IK · 9 games
Sniperoften banned
NattyNarwhal · 9 games
Ogre Magi
PERDAN4IK · 8 games
Clockwerkoften banned
ariel · 7 games
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Otaker · 7 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Muerta
453 picks · 370 bans
Clockwerk
421 picks · 542 bans
Batrider
374 picks · 474 bans
Lion
369 picks · 193 bans
Gyrocopter
360 picks · 579 bans
Phoenix
356 picks · 394 bans
Pangolier
355 picks · 585 bans
Beastmaster
339 picks · 848 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 44%
Hero pool strength51% xanbl
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total62% 4Pirates
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
xanbl 38%4Pirates 62%
The model gave 62% on 4Pirates — the game was taken by 4Pirates.
Model check result
Model favorite4Pirates · 62%
Series result4Pirates 0:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1