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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. ЮВА. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
XERXIAloss 1:2
series probability
41%59%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Army Geniuseswin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

XERXIA

No games played over 6 months.

Army Geniuses

Tiny
Tinysignature
inYourdreaM · 18 games
67%
Mirana
Miranasignature
Varizh · 12 games
75%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
inYourdreaM · 12 games
33%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Yowe · 10 games
70%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidoften banned
NARMAN · 10 games
50%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
Varizh · 10 games
60%
Broodmother
Broodmothersignature
woMy · 9 games
67%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
inYourdreaM · 9 games
56%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
592 picks · 386 bans
54%
Tusk
Tusk
529 picks · 517 bans
53%
Tiny
Tiny
522 picks · 430 bans
48%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
410 picks · 484 bans
56%
Mirana
Mirana
375 picks · 364 bans
54%
Snapfire
Snapfire
345 picks · 184 bans
46%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
309 picks · 751 bans
48%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
307 picks · 200 bans
58%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)33% vs 57%
Hero pool strength55% Army Geniuses
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total59% Army Geniuses
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct37:39
XERXIA 41%Army Geniuses 59%
The model gave 59% on Army Geniuses — the game was taken by Army Geniuses in 45:08.
Game 2prediction correct25:7
XERXIA 41%Army Geniuses 59%
The model gave 59% on Army Geniuses — the game was taken by Army Geniuses in 19:21.
Game 3prediction correct11:27
XERXIA 41%Army Geniuses 59%
The model gave 59% on Army Geniuses — the game was taken by Army Geniuses in 27:54.
Model check result
Model favoriteArmy Geniuses · 59%
Series resultArmy Geniuses 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 3