The International 2022. Региональные отборочные · BO1
result vs prediction
XERXIAwin 1:0series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 1:0
TNC Predatorloss 0:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
XERXIA
No games played over 6 months.
TNC Predator
Grimstrokesignature
Bombi · 14 games
Pangoliersignature
xiaoyu154 · 13 games
Enchantressoften banned
cml · 12 games
Pucksignature
xsilearn · 11 games
Tiny
YoungGodLevi · 11 games
Warlocksignature
Roddgeee · 11 games
Dawnbreakeroften banned
xiaoyu154 · 10 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
xsilearn · 9 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
713 picks · 562 bans
Dawnbreaker
499 picks · 658 bans
Marci
494 picks · 792 bans
Puck
487 picks · 1022 bans
Winter Wyvern
369 picks · 425 bans
Zeus
329 picks · 397 bans
Snapfire
325 picks · 159 bans
Razor
301 picks · 575 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 38%
Hero pool strength54% TNC Predator
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total50% TNC Predator
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct37:11
XERXIA 50%TNC Predator 50%
The model gave 50% on TNC Predator — the game was taken by TNC Predator in 36:42.
Model check result
Model favoriteTNC Predator · 50%
Series resultXERXIA 1:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 1