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FISSURE Special · BO3
result vs prediction
Xtreme Gamingwin 2:0
series probability
87%13%
probability at match start · final 2:0
1w Teamloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Xtreme Gaming

Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Poloson · 38 games
53%
Muerta
Muerta
Pyw · 22 games
59%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Xm · 22 games
41%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Xm · 20 games
55%
Tusk
Tusk
Pyw · 17 games
53%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
niu · 16 games
56%
Pugna
Pugnasignature
Poloson · 16 games
88%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Pyw · 16 games
44%

1w Team

Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Chira JUNIOR · 23 games
52%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Fishman · 20 games
45%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
Cloud · 20 games
50%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Chira JUNIOR · 19 games
63%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
swedenstrong · 17 games
35%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Munkushi~ · 17 games
65%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
Munkushi~ · 15 games
40%
Invoker
Invokersignature
Chira JUNIOR · 15 games
60%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
563 picks · 791 bans
49%
Muerta
Muerta
451 picks · 322 bans
52%
Phoenix
Phoenix
441 picks · 679 bans
52%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassin
427 picks · 777 bans
53%
Bristleback
Bristleback
406 picks · 875 bans
56%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
404 picks · 382 bans
52%
Pangolier
Pangolier
389 picks · 528 bans
48%
Magnus
Magnus
388 picks · 1073 bans
57%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)45% vs 54%
Hero pool strength51% Xtreme Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total87% Xtreme Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct28:7
Xtreme Gaming 72%1w Team 28%
The model gave 72% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 24:41.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinAme
48% · 106 games41% · 89 games
Phantom AssassinMunkushi~
Phantom Assassin
Medusa
MedusaXxs
45% · 92 games50% · 150 games
Centaur WarrunnerSSS
Centaur Warrunner
Earthshaker
EarthshakerXm
49% · 105 games54% · 174 games
Storm SpiritChira JUNIOR
Storm Spirit
Windranger
WindrangerXinQ
48% · 151 game61% · 93 games
ChenHduo
Chen
Elder Titan
Elder Titan天命
48% · 93 games58% · 41 game
Ringmasterswedenstrong
Ringmaster
Game 2prediction correct30:13
Xtreme Gaming 73%1w Team 27%
The model gave 73% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 27:51.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
SvenAme
46% · 217 games55% · 356 games
GyrocopterMunkushi~
Gyrocopter
Phoenix
PhoenixXm
51% · 422 games50% · 144 games
MarsSSS
Mars
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeXxs
50% · 187 games54% · 211 games
Monkey KingChira JUNIOR
Monkey King
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanXinQ
45% · 62 games46% · 204 games
Snapfireswedenstrong
Snapfire
Muerta
Muerta天命
46% · 264 games57% · 237 games
JakiroHduo
Jakiro
Model check result
Model favoriteXtreme Gaming · 87%
Series resultXtreme Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2