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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Китай. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Xtreme Gamingloss 1:2
series probability
58%42%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Antarctic Penguinswin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Xtreme Gaming

Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
Paparazi · 16 games
75%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
Paparazi · 9 games
44%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
Pyw · 8 games
50%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinoften banned
Pyw · 8 games
50%
Lina
Linasignature
Paparazi · 7 games
86%
Lion
Lion
Pyw · 7 games
57%
Enigma
Enigmaoften banned
ELeVeN · 6 games
33%
Lone Druid
Lone Druidoften banned
lou · 6 games
50%

Antarctic Penguins

Tiny
Tinysignature
Kaka · 16 games
63%
Puck
Pucksignature
Somnus · 12 games
75%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinoften banned
Kaka · 10 games
30%
Marci
Marcisignature
Kaka · 9 games
67%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
Kaka · 8 games
63%
Viper
Vipersignature
Chalice · 8 games
63%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Chalice · 7 games
29%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Chalice · 7 games
57%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
364 picks · 346 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
348 picks · 339 bans
58%
Mirana
Mirana
254 picks · 246 bans
53%
Rubick
Rubick
232 picks · 190 bans
58%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
229 picks · 149 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
207 picks · 548 bans
53%
Leshrac
Leshrac
200 picks · 425 bans
59%
Snapfire
Snapfire
200 picks · 116 bans
46%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 57%
Hero pool strength52% Xtreme Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total58% Xtreme Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct25:10
Xtreme Gaming 54%Antarctic Penguins 46%
The model gave 54% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 36:00.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetPaparazi
46% · 104 games46% · 49 games
Drow RangereGo
Drow Ranger
Kunkka
KunkkaGhost
53% · 138 games55% · 183 games
TuskAlaCrity
Tusk
Death Prophet
Death ProphetJT-
51% · 217 games47% · 393 games
TinyFelixCiaoBa
Tiny
Primal Beast
Primal BeastPyw
52% · 123 games44% · 63 games
SilencerXCJ
Silencer
Disruptor
DisruptorDy
54% · 106 games
Game 2prediction missed20:24
Xtreme Gaming 54%Antarctic Penguins 46%
The model gave 54% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Antarctic Penguins in 47:06.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sniper
SniperGhost
45% · 28 games54% · 122 games
LifestealereGo
Lifestealer
Tiny
TinyPaparazi
49% · 276 games50% · 345 games
PuckAlaCrity
Puck
Pangolier
PangolierJT-
45% · 122 games45% · 39 games
RikiFelixCiaoBa
Riki
Mirana
MiranaPyw
55% · 102 games54% · 161 game
PhoenixXCJ
Phoenix
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerDy
45% · 139 games
Game 3prediction missed7:25
Xtreme Gaming 55%Antarctic Penguins 45%
The model gave 55% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Antarctic Penguins in 30:38.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lone Druid
Lone DruidGhost
47% · 17 games47% · 90 games
Shadow FiendeGo
Shadow Fiend
Leshrac
LeshracPaparazi
55% · 110 games53% · 191 game
PangolierAlaCrity
Pangolier
Death Prophet
Death ProphetJT-
41% · 135 games42% · 13 games
RikiFelixCiaoBa
Riki
Primal Beast
Primal BeastPyw
55% · 98 games51% · 88 games
DisruptorXCJ
Disruptor
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful SpiritDy
50% · 22 games
Model check result
Model favoriteXtreme Gaming · 58%
Series resultAntarctic Penguins 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3