PGL Wallachia 2024: Season 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
Xtreme Gamingwin 2:0series probability
81%19%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Aurora Gamingloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Xtreme Gaming
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Xxs · 24 games
Marsoften banned
Xxs · 19 games
Phoenixsignature
Dy · 19 games
Primal Beastoften banned
Xxs · 19 games
Crystal Maidensignature
Dy · 17 games
Shadow Demonsignature
XinQ · 16 games
Snipersignature
Xm · 15 games
Batridersignature
Dy · 13 games
Aurora Gaming
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
483 picks · 213 bans
Tiny
444 picks · 622 bans
Batrider
410 picks · 736 bans
Rubick
395 picks · 158 bans
Centaur Warrunner
391 picks · 541 bans
Gyrocopter
382 picks · 324 bans
Pangolier
363 picks · 736 bans
Mars
337 picks · 548 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 39%
Hero pool strength60% Xtreme Gaming
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total81% Xtreme Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct29:14
Xtreme Gaming 81%Aurora Gaming 19%
The model gave 81% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 44:10.
Game 2prediction correct35:17
Xtreme Gaming 81%Aurora Gaming 19%
The model gave 81% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 38:16.
Model check result
Model favoriteXtreme Gaming · 81%
Series resultXtreme Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2