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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Китай. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Xtreme Gamingloss 1:2
series probability
57%43%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Azure Raywin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Xtreme Gaming

Mirana
Miranasignature
Dy · 20 games
60%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Paparazi · 17 games
53%
Doom
Doomsignature
JT- · 14 games
71%
Rubick
Rubick
Kaka · 14 games
50%
Lion
Lion
Kaka · 13 games
54%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Paparazi · 13 games
54%
Alchemist
Alchemistsignature
Ghost · 12 games
83%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
Paparazi · 12 games
67%

Azure Ray

Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
BEYOND · 12 games
75%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectorsignature
zzq · 12 games
92%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
7e · 10 games
70%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
天命 · 10 games
70%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
BEYOND · 9 games
100%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
zzq · 9 games
67%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
天命 · 9 games
100%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightsignature
7e · 9 games
78%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
712 picks · 607 bans
47%
Disruptor
Disruptor
587 picks · 509 bans
54%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
487 picks · 1204 bans
59%
Doom
Doom
484 picks · 924 bans
55%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
431 picks · 1090 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
417 picks · 873 bans
54%
Mirana
Mirana
408 picks · 218 bans
58%
Enchantress
Enchantress
402 picks · 578 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 55%
Hero pool strength59% Azure Ray
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total57% Xtreme Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct47:27
Xtreme Gaming 52%Azure Ray 48%
The model gave 52% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 1:05:02.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey King
Monkey KingGhost
52% · 178 games41% · 61 game
Phantom Lancerlou
Phantom Lancer
Spirit Breaker
Spirit BreakerJT-
39% · 92 games48% · 307 games
Ember SpiritSomnus
Ember Spirit
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainPaparazi
51% · 63 games50% · 158 games
TimbersawChalice
Timbersaw
Batrider
BatriderKaka
56% · 250 games61% · 68 games
Shadow Demonfy
Shadow Demon
Silencer
SilencerDy
50% · 177 games51% · 166 games
Techies天命
Techies
Game 2prediction missed20:35
Xtreme Gaming 53%Azure Ray 47%
The model gave 53% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Azure Ray in 51:53.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeGhost
46% · 133 games60% · 119 games
Naga Sirenlou
Naga Siren
Timbersaw
TimbersawJT-
48% · 98 games53% · 175 games
Storm SpiritSomnus
Storm Spirit
Void Spirit
Void SpiritPaparazi
46% · 125 games48% · 54 games
OmniknightChalice
Omniknight
Batrider
BatriderKaka
49% · 217 games53% · 164 games
Keeper of the Lightfy
Keeper of the Light
Techies
TechiesDy
50% · 149 games45% · 210 games
Silencer天命
Silencer
Game 3prediction missed15:28
Xtreme Gaming 54%Azure Ray 46%
The model gave 54% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Azure Ray in 31:38.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless Void
Faceless VoidGhost
58% · 126 games44% · 139 games
Slarklou
Slark
Timbersaw
TimbersawJT-
49% · 118 games50% · 367 games
PangolierSomnus
Pangolier
Puck
PuckPaparazi
56% · 163 games41% · 73 games
AbaddonChalice
Abaddon
Disruptor
DisruptorKaka
59% · 241 game52% · 162 games
Keeper of the Lightfy
Keeper of the Light
Batrider
BatriderDy
49% · 285 games42% · 192 games
Silencer天命
Silencer
Model check result
Model favoriteXtreme Gaming · 57%
Series resultAzure Ray 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3