ESL One Berlin Major 2023 · BO2
result vs prediction
Xtreme Gamingloss 0:2series probability
40%60%
probability at match start · final 0:2
beastcoastwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Xtreme Gaming
Miranasignature
Dy · 14 games
Tiny
Kaka · 12 games
Death Prophetsignature
JT- · 10 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
Paparazi · 9 games
Rubick
Kaka · 8 games
Drow Rangersignature
Ghost · 7 games
Lionsignature
Kaka · 7 games
Magnus
JT- · 7 games
beastcoast
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
1003 picks · 709 bans
Tiny
630 picks · 464 bans
Disruptor
577 picks · 425 bans
Nature's Prophet
564 picks · 912 bans
Tusk
524 picks · 398 bans
Snapfire
520 picks · 366 bans
Death Prophet
512 picks · 1208 bans
Ember Spirit
501 picks · 1098 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)65% vs 41%
Hero pool strength56% Xtreme Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total60% beastcoast
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct14:33
Xtreme Gaming 40%beastcoast 60%
The model gave 60% on beastcoast — the game was taken by beastcoast in 39:17.
Game 2prediction correct23:35
Xtreme Gaming 40%beastcoast 60%
The model gave 60% on beastcoast — the game was taken by beastcoast in 34:16.
Model check result
Model favoritebeastcoast · 60%
Series resultbeastcoast 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2