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The International 2024 · BO2
result vs prediction
Xtreme Gamingwin 2:0
series probability
85%15%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Heroicloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Xtreme Gaming

Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Dy · 23 games
78%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Xxs · 21 game
52%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Xxs · 20 games
70%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
XinQ · 17 games
65%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
XinQ · 16 games
63%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Xm · 16 games
88%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Xxs · 15 games
47%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
XinQ · 14 games
64%

Heroic

Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
KJ · 24 games
42%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinkoften banned
Scofield · 22 games
59%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
Scofield · 21 game
48%
Leshrac
Leshracoften banned
4nalog · 19 games
47%
Lifestealer
Lifestealeroften banned
K1 · 19 games
53%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
4nalog · 17 games
59%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
KJ · 15 games
67%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
Davai · 15 games
53%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
409 picks · 375 bans
51%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
383 picks · 429 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
365 picks · 530 bans
49%
Jakiro
Jakiro
341 picks · 256 bans
47%
Weaver
Weaver
333 picks · 749 bans
52%
Tiny
Tiny
319 picks · 768 bans
54%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
318 picks · 642 bans
49%
Phoenix
Phoenix
309 picks · 658 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)55% vs 46%
Hero pool strength56% Xtreme Gaming
Head-to-head2 – 1
Model total85% Xtreme Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct15:16
Xtreme Gaming 71%Heroic 29%
The model gave 71% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 40:38.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Windranger
WindrangerAme
47% · 139 games45% · 147 games
Dragon KnightK1
Dragon Knight
Bristleback
BristlebackXxs
52% · 40 games51% · 56 games
Invoker4nalog
Invoker
Viper
ViperXm
55% · 48 games45% · 188 games
Centaur WarrunnerDavai
Centaur Warrunner
Mirana
MiranaXinQ
44% · 113 games53% · 31 game
Skywrath MageScofield
Skywrath Mage
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectorDy
57% · 102 games65% · 20 games
OmniknightKJ
Omniknight
Game 2prediction correct25:28
Xtreme Gaming 71%Heroic 29%
The model gave 71% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 35:13.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendAme
54% · 68 games55% · 120 games
WeaverK1
Weaver
Void Spirit
Void SpiritXm
41% · 101 game54% · 121 game
DoomDavai
Doom
Visage
VisageXxs
43% · 22 games52% · 162 games
Puck4nalog
Puck
Alchemist
AlchemistXinQ
53% · 102 games47% · 53 games
SniperScofield
Sniper
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonDy
47% · 235 games48% · 72 games
TuskKJ
Tusk
Model check result
Model favoriteXtreme Gaming · 85%
Series resultXtreme Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2