DreamLeague Season 25 · BO2
result vs prediction
Xtreme Gamingloss 0:2series probability
34%66%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Heroicwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Xtreme Gaming
Clockwerkoften banned
Poloson · 38 games
Muerta
Pyw · 24 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
Xm · 22 games
Tusksignature
Pyw · 21 game
Puckoften banned
Xm · 19 games
Pugnasignature
Poloson · 17 games
Beastmasteroften banned
niu · 16 games
Dawnbreakeroften banned
niu · 15 games
Heroic
Earth Spiritsignature
4nalog · 30 games
Clockwerksignature
Scofield · 27 games
Lion
Scofield · 19 games
Muertasignature
Scofield · 19 games
Timbersawsignature
Wisper · 17 games
Invokeroften banned
4nalog · 16 games
Phoenixsignature
KJ · 16 games
Tusksignature
Scofield · 16 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Phoenix
516 picks · 803 bans
Tiny
515 picks · 627 bans
Clockwerk
493 picks · 498 bans
Batrider
468 picks · 566 bans
Muerta
433 picks · 368 bans
Magnus
430 picks · 1011 bans
Gyrocopter
414 picks · 780 bans
Lich
393 picks · 211 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)46% vs 59%
Hero pool strength52% Heroic
Head-to-head4 – 1
Model total66% Heroic
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct20:38
Xtreme Gaming 41%Heroic 59%
The model gave 59% on Heroic — the game was taken by Heroic in 41:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Drow Rangerlou
Dragon Knight4nalog
Storm SpiritXm
SpectreYuma
Marsniu
EnigmaWisper
TuskPoloson
SnapfireScofield
UndyingUndyne_
WarlockKJ
Game 2prediction correct18:30
Xtreme Gaming 39%Heroic 61%
The model gave 61% on Heroic — the game was taken by Heroic in 42:13.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Pangolierniu
UrsaYuma
Lifestealerlou
Ember Spirit4nalog
SlardarXm
MagnusWisper
SnapfirePoloson
Skywrath MageScofield
JakiroUndyne_
PhoenixKJ
Model check result
Model favoriteHeroic · 66%
Series resultHeroic 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2