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PGL Wallachia Season 6 · BO3
result vs prediction
Xtreme Gamingloss 1:2
series probability
49%51%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Heroicwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Xtreme Gaming

Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansignature
Pyw · 22 games
73%
Warlock
Warlocksignature
xNova · 20 games
65%
Elder Titan
Elder Titan
xNova · 17 games
53%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Xm · 17 games
76%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Xm · 16 games
50%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
Ame · 14 games
57%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Xxs · 13 games
69%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
Xxs · 12 games
58%

Heroic

Tusk
Tusk
Scofield · 26 games
50%
Enigma
Enigmasignature
Wisper · 23 games
61%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
Scofield · 22 games
55%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Scofield · 20 games
80%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
4nalog · 19 games
58%
Abaddon
Abaddonsignature
Yuma · 18 games
61%
Dark Seer
Dark Seersignature
Wisper · 18 games
67%
Puck
Puckoften banned
4nalog · 17 games
59%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
759 picks · 359 bans
54%
Disruptor
Disruptor
606 picks · 623 bans
50%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
550 picks · 300 bans
51%
Tusk
Tusk
457 picks · 266 bans
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
455 picks · 520 bans
50%
Puck
Puck
445 picks · 1176 bans
49%
Mars
Mars
443 picks · 727 bans
51%
Jakiro
Jakiro
420 picks · 264 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 60%
Hero pool strength51% Xtreme Gaming
Head-to-head2 – 1
Model total51% Heroic
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed26:22
Xtreme Gaming 48%Heroic 52%
The model gave 52% on Heroic — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 55:07.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Puck
PuckNothingToSay
51% · 386 games52% · 239 games
AbaddonYuma
Abaddon
Primal Beast
Primal BeastXxs
50% · 107 games48% · 408 games
Dragon KnightWisper
Dragon Knight
Alchemist
AlchemistAme
45% · 81 game47% · 103 games
UnderlordDavai
Underlord
Tusk
Tuskfy
47% · 418 games54% · 265 games
SnapfireScofield
Snapfire
Phoenix
PhoenixxNova
54% · 255 games50% · 232 games
Shadow DemonKJ
Shadow Demon
Game 2prediction correct24:34
Xtreme Gaming 48%Heroic 52%
The model gave 52% on Heroic — the game was taken by Heroic in 1:05:10.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Timbersaw
TimbersawXxs
50% · 172 games54% · 237 games
GyrocopterYuma
Gyrocopter
Void Spirit
Void SpiritNothingToSay
58% · 239 games50% · 378 games
PuckWisper
Puck
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinAme
51% · 236 games44% · 23 games
ViperDavai
Viper
Enchantress
EnchantressxNova
44% · 153 games53% · 58 games
Nyx AssassinScofield
Nyx Assassin
Pudge
Pudgefy
50% · 53 games45% · 157 games
Shadow DemonKJ
Shadow Demon
Game 3prediction missed17:31
Xtreme Gaming 50%Heroic 50%
The model gave 50% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Heroic in 1:02:43.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusaAme
52% · 185 games47% · 223 games
Templar AssassinYuma
Templar Assassin
Undying
UndyingXxs
50% · 147 games49% · 287 games
Dragon KnightDavai
Dragon Knight
Puck
PuckNothingToSay
49% · 372 games51% · 131 game
EnigmaWisper
Enigma
Ancient Apparition
Ancient ApparitionxNova
47% · 131 game48% · 173 games
ClockwerkScofield
Clockwerk
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinfy
54% · 130 games55% · 151 game
BaneKJ
Bane
Model check result
Model favoriteHeroic · 51%
Series resultHeroic 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 3