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The International 2022: Last Chance · BO3
result vs prediction
Xtreme Gamingwin 2:1
series probability
66%34%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Infamousloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Xtreme Gaming

Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
ELeVeN · 10 games
80%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Paparazi · 10 games
30%
Lina
Linasignature
Paparazi · 9 games
78%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
lou · 9 games
33%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritsignature
Pyw · 8 games
63%
Enigma
Enigmasignature
ELeVeN · 8 games
63%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Paparazi · 8 games
38%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
Pyw · 8 games
38%

Infamous

Bane
Bane
Prada · 8 games
50%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Mariano · 8 games
50%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
PiPi · 7 games
43%
Rubick
Rubick
Genek · 7 games
57%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Mariano · 6 games
17%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
PiPi · 5 games
20%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokeoften banned
Prada · 5 games
20%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Genek · 5 games
60%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
544 picks · 422 bans
52%
Marci
Marci
453 picks · 675 bans
54%
Puck
Puck
325 picks · 748 bans
55%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
321 picks · 444 bans
45%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
296 picks · 491 bans
49%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
286 picks · 362 bans
54%
Batrider
Batrider
258 picks · 844 bans
52%
Dazzle
Dazzle
250 picks · 157 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 39%
Hero pool strength56% Xtreme Gaming
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total66% Xtreme Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed9:22
Xtreme Gaming 66%Infamous 34%
The model gave 66% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Infamous in 32:06.
Game 2prediction correct26:19
Xtreme Gaming 66%Infamous 34%
The model gave 66% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 44:38.
Game 3prediction correct31:10
Xtreme Gaming 66%Infamous 34%
The model gave 66% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 32:56.
Model check result
Model favoriteXtreme Gaming · 66%
Series resultXtreme Gaming 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3