ESL One Berlin Major 2023 · BO2
result vs prediction
Xtreme Gamingloss 1:1series probability
68%32%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Invictus Gamingloss 1:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Xtreme Gaming
Miranasignature
Dy · 14 games
Tiny
Kaka · 12 games
Death Prophetsignature
JT- · 10 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
Paparazi · 9 games
Rubick
Kaka · 8 games
Drow Rangersignature
Ghost · 7 games
Lionsignature
Kaka · 7 games
Magnus
JT- · 7 games
Invictus Gaming
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
1004 picks · 710 bans
Tiny
629 picks · 462 bans
Disruptor
580 picks · 427 bans
Nature's Prophet
563 picks · 907 bans
Tusk
523 picks · 397 bans
Snapfire
519 picks · 364 bans
Death Prophet
510 picks · 1205 bans
Ember Spirit
500 picks · 1099 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)61% vs 37%
Hero pool strength56% Xtreme Gaming
Head-to-head3 – 0
Model total68% Xtreme Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed17:35
Xtreme Gaming 68%Invictus Gaming 32%
The model gave 68% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Invictus Gaming in 37:10.
Game 2prediction correct38:14
Xtreme Gaming 68%Invictus Gaming 32%
The model gave 68% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 42:08.
Model check result
Model favoriteXtreme Gaming · 68%
Accuracy by game1 of 2