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Riyadh Masters 2023 · BO2
result vs prediction
Xtreme Gamingwin 2:0
series probability
24%76%
probability at match start · final 2:0
LGD Gamingloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Xtreme Gaming

Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Paparazi · 21 game
52%
Mirana
Miranasignature
Dy · 19 games
63%
Rubick
Rubick
Kaka · 17 games
53%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Paparazi · 16 games
50%
Doom
Doomsignature
JT- · 14 games
71%
Alchemist
Alchemistsignature
Ghost · 13 games
85%
Lion
Lion
Kaka · 12 games
50%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
JT- · 10 games
40%

LGD Gaming

Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
niu · 30 games
70%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
NothingToSay · 28 games
54%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
NothingToSay · 22 games
73%
Disruptor
Disruptor
pLAnet · 20 games
50%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
NothingToSay · 20 games
75%
Techies
Techiessignature
pLAnet · 20 games
75%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
niu · 20 games
55%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
pLAnet · 19 games
47%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Techies
Techies
640 picks · 690 bans
54%
Rubick
Rubick
510 picks · 329 bans
47%
Doom
Doom
451 picks · 977 bans
54%
Batrider
Batrider
408 picks · 931 bans
51%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
400 picks · 857 bans
48%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
392 picks · 353 bans
55%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
384 picks · 1002 bans
56%
Pugna
Pugna
381 picks · 448 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)39% vs 47%
Hero pool strength53% LGD Gaming
Head-to-head1 – 2
Model total76% LGD Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed30:11
Xtreme Gaming 37%LGD Gaming 63%
The model gave 63% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 42:05.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bloodseeker
BloodseekerGhost
53% · 158 games48% · 54 games
Lifestealershiro
Lifestealer
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritPaparazi
47% · 339 games51% · 98 games
LinaNothingToSay
Lina
Visage
VisageJT-
55% · 138 games50% · 159 games
Timbersawniu
Timbersaw
Venomancer
VenomancerXinQ
57% · 78 games51% · 261 game
Undyingy`
Undying
Elder Titan
Elder TitanDy
43% · 50 games44% · 191 game
ClockwerkpLAnet
Clockwerk
Game 2prediction missed50:15
Xtreme Gaming 35%LGD Gaming 65%
The model gave 65% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 50:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bloodseeker
BloodseekerGhost
49% · 184 games63% · 153 games
Medusashiro
Medusa
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritPaparazi
48% · 267 games48% · 105 games
Dragon KnightNothingToSay
Dragon Knight
Legion Commander
Legion CommanderJT-
48% · 65 games49% · 231 game
Enchantressy`
Enchantress
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath MageXinQ
46% · 181 game46% · 197 games
Timbersawniu
Timbersaw
Silencer
SilencerDy
51% · 235 games53% · 246 games
DisruptorpLAnet
Disruptor
Model check result
Model favoriteLGD Gaming · 76%
Series resultXtreme Gaming 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2