Moon Studio Spring Trophy · BO3
result vs prediction
Xtreme Gamingloss 1:2series probability
38%62%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Lilgunwin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Xtreme Gaming
Death Prophetoften banned
Storm · 3 games
Linaoften banned
Storm · 3 games
Puckoften banned
bLink · 3 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
Storm · 3 games
Windranger
Storm · 3 games
Ursaoften banned
Storm · 2 games
Viperoften banned
Storm · 2 games
Batrideroften banned
Storm · 1 game
Lilgun
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
402 picks · 946 bans
Void Spirit
376 picks · 573 bans
Mars
332 picks · 610 bans
Death Prophet
294 picks · 584 bans
Earth Spirit
294 picks · 264 bans
Rubick
255 picks · 172 bans
Wraith King
241 picks · 407 bans
Keeper of the Light
239 picks · 541 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)45% vs 48%
Hero pool strength51% Xtreme Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total62% Lilgun
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Model check result
Model favoriteLilgun · 62%
Series resultLilgun 1:2
Series predictioncorrect