Xtreme Gaming vs Mosquito Clan — prediction PWS 3 · Dota 2

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PGL Wallachia Season 3 · BO3

result vs prediction

Xtreme Gamingwin 2:0

series probability

94%6%

probability at match start · final 2:0

Mosquito Clanloss 0:2

The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.

Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months

Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Xtreme Gaming

Clockwerk

Poloson · 38 games

53%

Muerta

Pyw · 24 games

58%

Storm Spiritoften banned

Xm · 22 games

41%

Tusk

Pyw · 20 games

55%

Puckoften banned

Xm · 18 games

56%

Pugnasignature

Poloson · 17 games

88%

Beastmasteroften banned

niu · 16 games

56%

Dawnbreakeroften banned

niu · 15 games

40%

Mosquito Clan

No games played over 6 months.

Patch meta · 3 months

The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.

Tiny

514 picks · 735 bans

50%

Phoenix

493 picks · 799 bans

53%

Clockwerk

489 picks · 479 bans

53%

Batrider

442 picks · 539 bans

50%

Muerta

442 picks · 380 bans

52%

Magnus

432 picks · 1042 bans

57%

Bristleback

410 picks · 943 bans

59%

Pangolier

392 picks · 529 bans

48%

Prediction components

Form (series winrate)40% vs 50%

Hero pool strength53% Xtreme Gaming

Head-to-head0 – 0

Model total94% Xtreme Gaming

Prediction by game vs result

Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.

Game 1prediction correct40:11

Xtreme Gaming 80%Mosquito Clan 20%

The model gave 80% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 36:39.

Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo