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Riyadh Masters 2024 · BO2
result vs prediction
Xtreme Gamingwin 2:0
series probability
87%13%
probability at match start · final 2:0
MOUZloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Xtreme Gaming

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Xxs · 29 games
69%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Dy · 22 games
73%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
Xxs · 21 game
48%
Mars
Marssignature
Xxs · 20 games
60%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
XinQ · 19 games
74%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
Dy · 17 games
65%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
XinQ · 17 games
71%
Sniper
Snipersignature
Xm · 17 games
76%

MOUZ

Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
bengan · 44 games
59%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Ulnit · 43 games
58%
Tiny
Tinysignature
NARMAN · 38 games
63%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Force · 36 games
69%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
bengan · 30 games
60%
Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
Force · 29 games
52%
Witch Doctor
Witch Doctoroften banned
bengan · 29 games
55%
Sven
Sven
Ulnit · 23 games
39%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
385 picks · 670 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
319 picks · 452 bans
54%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
319 picks · 374 bans
51%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
311 picks · 351 bans
51%
Weaver
Weaver
311 picks · 592 bans
53%
Rubick
Rubick
307 picks · 191 bans
49%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
302 picks · 219 bans
54%
Pangolier
Pangolier
290 picks · 532 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 54%
Hero pool strength54% Xtreme Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total87% Xtreme Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct24:18
Xtreme Gaming 71%MOUZ 29%
The model gave 71% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 39:51.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll Warlord
Troll WarlordAme
46% · 89 games44% · 118 games
GyrocopterUlnit
Gyrocopter
Sand King
Sand KingXxs
71% · 3 games48% · 80 games
Dark SeerForce
Dark Seer
Void Spirit
Void SpiritXm
43% · 62 games55% · 61 game
InvokerSupream^
Invoker
Phoenix
PhoenixDy
49% · 195 games57% · 48 games
Spirit BreakerNARMAN
Spirit Breaker
Jakiro
JakiroXinQ
52% · 36 games63% · 78 games
Marcibengan
Marci
Game 2prediction correct31:10
Xtreme Gaming 73%MOUZ 27%
The model gave 73% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 36:53.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll Warlord
Troll WarlordAme
51% · 102 games48% · 232 games
MorphlingUlnit
Morphling
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritXm
48% · 143 games50% · 21 game
Sand KingSupream^
Sand King
Mars
MarsXxs
52% · 183 games43% · 175 games
Dark SeerForce
Dark Seer
Hoodwink
HoodwinkXinQ
47% · 192 games55% · 175 games
Dark WillowNARMAN
Dark Willow
Phoenix
PhoenixDy
53% · 227 games52% · 244 games
Shadow Demonbengan
Shadow Demon
Model check result
Model favoriteXtreme Gaming · 87%
Series resultXtreme Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2