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BLAST Slam V · BO1
result vs prediction
Xtreme Gamingwin 1:0
series probability
45%55%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Natus Vincereloss 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Xtreme Gaming

Warlock
Warlocksignature
xNova · 21 game
62%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansignature
Pyw · 19 games
79%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Xm · 18 games
50%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Xm · 16 games
75%
Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
xNova · 14 games
64%
Tusk
Tusk
XinQ · 13 games
46%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Xxs · 12 games
67%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendsignature
Xm · 12 games
67%

Natus Vincere

Warlock
Warlock
Kaori · 25 games
56%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
pma · 24 games
54%
Disruptor
Disruptoroften banned
Riddys · 23 games
48%
Abaddon
Abaddonsignature
gotthejuice · 21 game
71%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
gotthejuice · 19 games
74%
Bane
Banesignature
Zayac · 18 games
83%
Dazzle
Dazzleoften banned
Riddys · 17 games
53%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Niku · 17 games
59%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
776 picks · 354 bans
53%
Disruptor
Disruptor
583 picks · 591 bans
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
564 picks · 299 bans
51%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
471 picks · 541 bans
50%
Jakiro
Jakiro
469 picks · 287 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
467 picks · 273 bans
52%
Mars
Mars
455 picks · 740 bans
50%
Puck
Puck
434 picks · 1120 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 59%
Hero pool strength50% Natus Vincere
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total55% Natus Vincere
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed28:21
Xtreme Gaming 44%Natus Vincere 56%
The model gave 56% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 42:58.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterAme
49% · 353 games51% · 332 games
Abaddongotthejuice
Abaddon
Earthshaker
EarthshakerNothingToSay
51% · 285 games42% · 279 games
Queen of PainNiku
Queen of Pain
Bristleback
BristlebackXxs
55% · 300 games43% · 457 games
Pangolierpma
Pangolier
Jakiro
JakiroxNova
46% · 451 game58% · 232 games
ChenRiddys
Chen
Hoodwink
Hoodwinkfy
54% · 382 games50% · 471 game
SnapfireZayac
Snapfire
Model check result
Model favoriteNatus Vincere · 55%
Series resultXtreme Gaming 1:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1