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DreamLeague Season 28 · BO2
result vs prediction
Xtreme Gamingloss 0:2
series probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Natus Vincerewin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Xtreme Gaming

Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
fy · 20 games
65%
Warlock
Warlock
xNova · 20 games
55%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Xxs · 19 games
74%
Slardar
Slardarsignature
Xxs · 16 games
88%
Mars
Marssignature
Xxs · 15 games
60%
Puck
Puckoften banned
NothingToSay · 14 games
57%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
fy · 14 games
79%
Disruptor
Disruptor
xNova · 13 games
38%

Natus Vincere

Disruptor
Disruptor
Riddys · 31 game
52%
Warlock
Warlock
Riddys · 31 game
58%
Bane
Banesignature
Zayac · 22 games
77%
Mars
Marsoften banned
pma · 22 games
50%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Zayac · 22 games
64%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
pma · 21 game
52%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
gotthejuice · 21 game
52%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
Riddys · 21 game
57%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
627 picks · 973 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
515 picks · 435 bans
48%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
461 picks · 627 bans
56%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
440 picks · 1007 bans
55%
Tiny
Tiny
433 picks · 477 bans
47%
Warlock
Warlock
430 picks · 261 bans
47%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
423 picks · 510 bans
48%
Mars
Mars
403 picks · 561 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 53%
Hero pool strength54% Xtreme Gaming
Head-to-head3 – 2
Model total53% Xtreme Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed8:20
Xtreme Gaming 50%Natus Vincere 50%
The model gave 50% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 35:12.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinAme
53% · 172 games46% · 172 games
Windrangergotthejuice
Windranger
Beastmaster
BeastmasterNothingToSay
47% · 258 games54% · 165 games
Underlordpma
Underlord
Brewmaster
BrewmasterXxs
48% · 74 games51% · 64 games
KezNiku
Kez
Chen
ChenxNova
52% · 146 games45% · 302 games
WarlockRiddys
Warlock
Largo
Largofy
56% · 61 game49% · 8 games
Earth SpiritZayac
Earth Spirit
Game 2prediction correct18:36
Xtreme Gaming 49%Natus Vincere 51%
The model gave 51% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 36:41.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinAme
49% · 220 games56% · 327 games
Shadow Fiendgotthejuice
Shadow Fiend
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainNothingToSay
44% · 287 games54% · 272 games
Underlordpma
Underlord
Mars
MarsXxs
43% · 317 games57% · 582 games
Ember SpiritNiku
Ember Spirit
Jakiro
Jakirofy
45% · 437 games51% · 508 games
DisruptorRiddys
Disruptor
Tusk
TuskxNova
45% · 457 games62% · 29 games
Earth SpiritZayac
Earth Spirit
Model check result
Model favoriteXtreme Gaming · 53%
Series resultNatus Vincere 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 2