DreamLeague Season 29 · BO3
result vs prediction
Xtreme Gamingloss 0:2series probability
47%53%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Natus Vincerewin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Xtreme Gaming
Hoodwinksignature
fy · 30 games
Primal Beastsignature
Xxs · 30 games
Warlock
xNova · 30 games
Phoenixoften banned
xNova · 28 games
Marsoften banned
Xxs · 26 games
Shadow Demonsignature
fy · 25 games
Tiny
NothingToSay · 25 games
Slardarsignature
Xxs · 24 games
Natus Vincere
Warlock
Riddys · 31 game
Shadow Demonsignature
Zayac · 24 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
pma · 20 games
Grimstroke
Riddys · 20 games
Underlordsignature
pma · 20 games
Marsoften banned
pma · 19 games
Queen of Painoften banned
Niku · 19 games
Disruptor
Riddys · 18 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
544 picks · 333 bans
Phoenix
506 picks · 590 bans
Tiny
446 picks · 372 bans
Rubick
411 picks · 225 bans
Jakiro
386 picks · 280 bans
Puck
349 picks · 883 bans
Tusk
341 picks · 308 bans
Beastmaster
340 picks · 855 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 53%
Hero pool strength52% Xtreme Gaming
Head-to-head4 – 3
Model total53% Natus Vincere
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct0:1
Xtreme Gaming 47%Natus Vincere 53%
The model gave 53% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 34:49.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Drow RangerAme
Doomgotthejuice
DawnbreakerXxs
KezNiku
Storm SpiritNothingToSay
Centaur Warrunnerpma
Techiesfy
Shadow DemonRiddys
PhoenixxNova
RubickDaze
Game 2prediction correct12:23
Xtreme Gaming 48%Natus Vincere 52%
The model gave 52% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 25:35.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
KezAme
Faceless Voidgotthejuice
LargoXxs
Underlordpma
Storm SpiritNothingToSay
InvokerNiku
EnchantressxNova
VenomancerRiddys
Hoodwinkfy
RubickDaze
Model check result
Model favoriteNatus Vincere · 53%
Series resultNatus Vincere 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2