BLAST Slam II · BO1
result vs prediction
Xtreme Gamingloss 0:1series probability
62%38%
probability at match start · final 0:1
Nigma Galaxywin 1:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Xtreme Gaming
Clockwerksignature
Poloson · 29 games
Muertasignature
Pyw · 23 games
Tusksignature
Pyw · 20 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
Xm · 19 games
Puckoften banned
Xm · 17 games
Pugnasignature
Poloson · 17 games
Beastmastersignature
niu · 14 games
Lunasignature
Ame · 13 games
Nigma Galaxy
Clockwerksignature
GH · 22 games
Marssignature
No!ob · 21 game
Snipersignature
SumaiL · 19 games
Phoenixoften banned
GH · 18 games
Batrideroften banned
OmaR · 17 games
Primal Beastoften banned
No!ob · 16 games
Lionsignature
OmaR · 15 games
Magnusoften banned
OmaR · 15 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Muerta
468 picks · 398 bans
Phoenix
466 picks · 572 bans
Batrider
450 picks · 550 bans
Clockwerk
429 picks · 528 bans
Gyrocopter
414 picks · 771 bans
Tiny
412 picks · 457 bans
Lion
403 picks · 232 bans
Magnus
398 picks · 866 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 55%
Hero pool strength53% Xtreme Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total62% Xtreme Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed17:33
Xtreme Gaming 54%Nigma Galaxy 46%
The model gave 54% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 44:17.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knightlou
BristlebackNo!ob
Monkey KingXm
MorphlingGhost
Underlordniu
TinySumaiL
MuertaPyw
PugnaGH
EnchantressPoloson
RikiOmaR
Model check result
Model favoriteXtreme Gaming · 62%
Series resultNigma Galaxy 0:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1