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ESL One Berlin Major 2023 · BO2
result vs prediction
Xtreme Gamingloss 0:2
series probability
42%58%
probability at match start · final 0:2
OGwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Xtreme Gaming

Mirana
Miranasignature
Dy · 13 games
69%
Tiny
Tiny
Kaka · 12 games
58%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
JT- · 10 games
70%
Drow Ranger
Drow Rangersignature
Ghost · 7 games
86%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Paparazi · 7 games
57%
Lion
Lionsignature
Kaka · 6 games
83%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
JT- · 6 games
50%
Rubick
Rubick
Kaka · 6 games
50%

OG

Rubick
Rubick
Taiga · 29 games
55%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Chuvash · 13 games
54%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
bzm · 13 games
54%
Tiny
Tiny
bzm · 12 games
58%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
DM · 11 games
55%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
Taiga · 11 games
64%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Taiga · 11 games
55%
Slark
Slarksignature
Yuragi · 11 games
64%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
1004 picks · 699 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
639 picks · 465 bans
52%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
577 picks · 929 bans
54%
Disruptor
Disruptor
560 picks · 412 bans
55%
Tusk
Tusk
533 picks · 410 bans
47%
Snapfire
Snapfire
526 picks · 370 bans
45%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
519 picks · 1212 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
500 picks · 386 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)64% vs 41%
Hero pool strength54% Xtreme Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total58% OG
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct26:41
Xtreme Gaming 48%OG 52%
The model gave 52% on OG — the game was taken by OG in 44:11.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
SvenGhost
41% · 19 games53% · 109 games
Templar AssassinYuragi
Templar Assassin
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritPaparazi
61% · 82 games41% · 44 games
Void Spiritbzm
Void Spirit
Timbersaw
TimbersawJT-
46% · 69 games49% · 54 games
UnderlordMinD_ContRoL
Underlord
Lion
LionKaka
54% · 11 games45% · 35 games
Dark WillowTaiga
Dark Willow
Io
IoDy
51% · 61 game
Game 2prediction correct6:25
Xtreme Gaming 48%OG 52%
The model gave 52% on OG — the game was taken by OG in 21:58.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Muerta
MuertaGhost
57% · 9 games49% · 354 games
DoomYuragi
Doom
Beastmaster
BeastmasterJT-
55% · 241 game48% · 104 games
UnderlordMinD_ContRoL
Underlord
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritPaparazi
44% · 289 games48% · 492 games
Pangolierbzm
Pangolier
Rubick
RubickKaka
57% · 331 game50% · 183 games
Keeper of the LightTaiga
Keeper of the Light
Mirana
MiranaDy
47% · 263 games
Model check result
Model favoriteOG · 58%
Series resultOG 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2