Xtreme Gaming vs Pibbles Corp — prediction PWS 9 · Dota 2

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PGL Wallachia Season 9 · BO3

result vs prediction

Xtreme Gamingwin 2:0

series probability

98%2%

probability at match start · final 2:0

Pibbles Corploss 0:2

The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.

Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months

Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Xtreme Gaming

Hoodwink

fy · 28 games

54%

Rubick

fy · 19 games

42%

Phoenix

xNova · 18 games

33%

Pangolier

NothingToSay · 17 games

53%

Sand Kingsignature

NothingToSay · 15 games

67%

Lichsignature

xNova · 14 games

64%

Tinyoften banned

Ame · 13 games

54%

Puckoften banned

NothingToSay · 12 games

17%

Pibbles Corp

No games played over 6 months.

Patch meta · 3 months

The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.

Hoodwink

460 picks · 283 bans

50%

Mirana

312 picks · 125 bans

53%

Dark Willow

310 picks · 134 bans

50%

Ember Spirit

302 picks · 444 bans

59%

Centaur Warrunner

285 picks · 289 bans

55%

Earth Spirit

281 picks · 414 bans

52%

Clockwerk

270 picks · 217 bans

51%

Undying

265 picks · 364 bans

49%

Prediction components

Form (series winrate)33% vs 40%

Hero pool strength52% Pibbles Corp

Head-to-head0 – 0

Model total98% Xtreme Gaming

Prediction by game vs result

Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.

Game 1prediction correct23:10

Xtreme Gaming 85%Pibbles Corp 15%

The model gave 85% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 34:55.

Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo