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Elite League · BO3
result vs prediction
Xtreme Gamingwin 2:0
series probability
74%26%
probability at match start · final 2:0
PSG Questloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Xtreme Gaming

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Xxs · 17 games
82%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
Xxs · 16 games
44%
Mars
Marssignature
Xxs · 15 games
67%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
Dy · 14 games
71%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Dy · 14 games
64%
Mirana
Miranasignature
XinQ · 12 games
75%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
XinQ · 12 games
75%
Sniper
Snipersignature
Xm · 11 games
91%

PSG Quest

Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Dukalis · 24 games
54%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
No!ob · 16 games
63%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
No!ob · 15 games
33%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
OmaR · 15 games
60%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
OmaR · 14 games
43%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
Dukalis · 14 games
64%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
OmaR · 14 games
50%
Lion
Lionsignature
OmaR · 14 games
64%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
481 picks · 745 bans
54%
Batrider
Batrider
465 picks · 922 bans
55%
Tiny
Tiny
455 picks · 611 bans
55%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
454 picks · 201 bans
54%
Rubick
Rubick
436 picks · 194 bans
50%
Techies
Techies
436 picks · 332 bans
49%
Mars
Mars
430 picks · 687 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
426 picks · 723 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)48% vs 59%
Hero pool strength58% Xtreme Gaming
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total74% Xtreme Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct34:22
Xtreme Gaming 63%PSG Quest 37%
The model gave 63% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 50:17.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Weaver
WeaverAme
55% · 78 games50% · 177 games
MorphlingTA2000
Morphling
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritXm
49% · 210 games53% · 125 games
WindrangerNo!ob
Windranger
Slardar
SlardarXxs
45% · 51 game52% · 263 games
PangolierMalik
Pangolier
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeXinQ
49% · 182 games43% · 27 games
VenomancerDukalis
Venomancer
Phoenix
PhoenixDy
48% · 189 games51% · 118 games
GyrocopterOmaR
Gyrocopter
Game 2prediction correct36:9
Xtreme Gaming 65%PSG Quest 35%
The model gave 65% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 36:53.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
SvenAme
47% · 124 games49% · 130 games
Naga SirenTA2000
Naga Siren
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerXxs
53% · 195 games58% · 94 games
EnigmaMalik
Enigma
Zeus
ZeusXm
42% · 56 games50% · 269 games
TinyNo!ob
Tiny
Batrider
BatriderXinQ
52% · 249 games54% · 214 games
MiranaOmaR
Mirana
Disruptor
DisruptorDy
56% · 156 games32% · 73 games
BaneDukalis
Bane
Model check result
Model favoriteXtreme Gaming · 74%
Series resultXtreme Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2