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ESL Challenger China Season 3 x ACL 2026 · BO3
result vs prediction
Xtreme Gamingwin 1:0
series probability
93%7%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Roar Gamingloss 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Xtreme Gaming

Warlock
Warlock
xNova · 30 games
50%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Xxs · 29 games
62%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Xxs · 27 games
44%
Tusk
Tusk
fy · 26 games
46%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
xNova · 25 games
48%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
fy · 25 games
72%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
NothingToSay · 23 games
65%
Slardar
Slardarsignature
Xxs · 23 games
78%

Roar Gaming

Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
ButterflyEffect · 11 games
18%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
CatYou · 10 games
50%
Jakiro
Jakiro
LOyd · 10 games
30%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
ukiyo · 9 games
22%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
ButterflyEffect · 9 games
33%
Tusk
Tusk
CatYou · 8 games
25%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
ButterflyEffect · 7 games
57%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectoroften banned
LOyd · 7 games
29%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
518 picks · 428 bans
49%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
473 picks · 243 bans
57%
Phoenix
Phoenix
472 picks · 527 bans
52%
Tiny
Tiny
462 picks · 353 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
417 picks · 355 bans
53%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
357 picks · 798 bans
48%
Puck
Puck
351 picks · 856 bans
53%
Warlock
Warlock
347 picks · 205 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)46% vs 42%
Hero pool strength61% Xtreme Gaming
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total93% Xtreme Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct21:16
Xtreme Gaming 81%Roar Gaming 19%
The model gave 81% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 43:02.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Muerta
MuertaAme
50% · 198 games43% · 309 games
Beastmasterukiyo
Beastmaster
Doom
DoomXiao8
50% · 176 games45% · 251 game
Queen of PainButterflyEffect
Queen of Pain
Sand King
Sand KingNothingToSay
53% · 191 game45% · 133 games
Dawnbreaker生死
Dawnbreaker
Hoodwink
Hoodwinkfy
53% · 394 games51% · 94 games
VenomancerLOyd
Venomancer
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectorxNova
59% · 79 games52% · 251 game
RubickCatYou
Rubick
Model check result
Model favoriteXtreme Gaming · 93%
Series resultXtreme Gaming 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1