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Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 2 — Китай. Финал · BO3
result vs prediction
Xtreme Gamingloss 1:2
series probability
51%49%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Team Asterwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Xtreme Gaming

Mars
Marssignature
Srf · 15 games
67%
Bane
Banesignature
Dy · 14 games
71%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painsignature
Paparazi · 13 games
77%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Paparazi · 13 games
77%
Ursa
Ursaoften banned
Another · 12 games
58%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
Paparazi · 11 games
82%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinsignature
Pyw · 11 games
100%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
lou · 11 games
73%

Team Aster

Bane
Banesignature
Fantasy · 27 games
74%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
Fantasy · 22 games
64%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Xxs · 22 games
55%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Fantasy · 21 game
57%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Xxs · 19 games
74%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
BoBoKa · 17 games
59%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
Ori · 16 games
50%
Io
Iosignature
BoBoKa · 15 games
80%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
Bane
457 picks · 274 bans
57%
Mars
Mars
437 picks · 592 bans
53%
Tiny
Tiny
403 picks · 470 bans
52%
Sand King
Sand King
354 picks · 474 bans
54%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
350 picks · 763 bans
54%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
329 picks · 496 bans
50%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
307 picks · 450 bans
55%
Pangolier
Pangolier
297 picks · 445 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)75% vs 55%
Hero pool strength54% Xtreme Gaming
Head-to-head1 – 2
Model total51% Xtreme Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed26:7
Xtreme Gaming 49%Team Aster 51%
The model gave 51% on Team Aster — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 33:21.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lina
LinaPaparazi
47% · 159 games51% · 138 games
Phantom AssassinMonet
Phantom Assassin
Wraith King
Wraith Kinglou
51% · 150 games54% · 146 games
TimbersawXxs
Timbersaw
Pangolier
PangolierELeVeN
50% · 202 games47% · 262 games
Ember SpiritOri
Ember Spirit
Lion
LionPyw
51% · 175 games57% · 90 games
Keeper of the LightBoBoKa
Keeper of the Light
Witch Doctor
Witch DoctorDy
30% · 17 games47% · 67 games
Shadow ShamanFantasy
Shadow Shaman
Game 2prediction correct10:21
Xtreme Gaming 48%Team Aster 52%
The model gave 52% on Team Aster — the game was taken by Team Aster in 34:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
Morphlinglou
43% · 126 games54% · 277 games
Ember SpiritMonet
Ember Spirit
Lina
LinaPaparazi
48% · 196 games48% · 256 games
Dragon KnightOri
Dragon Knight
Pangolier
PangolierELeVeN
45% · 240 games59% · 84 games
BrewmasterXxs
Brewmaster
Lion
LionPyw
49% · 230 games53% · 97 games
Keeper of the LightBoBoKa
Keeper of the Light
Elder Titan
Elder TitanDy
46% · 73 games56% · 151 game
Treant ProtectorFantasy
Treant Protector
Game 3prediction correct14:30
Xtreme Gaming 50%Team Aster 50%
The model gave 50% on Team Aster — the game was taken by Team Aster in 34:38.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Puck
PuckPaparazi
41% · 304 games51% · 183 games
TerrorbladeMonet
Terrorblade
Morphling
Morphlinglou
42% · 147 games51% · 107 games
Keeper of the LightOri
Keeper of the Light
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightELeVeN
45% · 236 games61% · 42 games
BrewmasterXxs
Brewmaster
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanPyw
52% · 85 games60% · 276 games
LionBoBoKa
Lion
Undying
UndyingDy
56% · 56 games50% · 220 games
GrimstrokeFantasy
Grimstroke
Model check result
Model favoriteXtreme Gaming · 51%
Series resultTeam Aster 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game2 of 3